PAGASA confirms 'weak' El Niño; impact possible by Q4 2023
Published Jul 4, 2023 06:42 am
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday, July 4 confirmed the presence of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific and predicted that its effects will be felt gradually in the country in the coming months.
PAGASA's El Niño-Southern Oscillation Alert System status was thus changed from El Niño alert to advisory.
“Recent PAGASA climate monitoring and analyses indicate that the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific that was established in March 2023 has further developed into a weak El Niño, which show signs of strengthening in the coming months,” PAGASA said in its first El Niño advisory.
The last El Niño episode was in 2018-2019.
(PAGASA)
El Niño increases the likelihood of “below-normal” rainfall in some areas of the country, which could have negative effects like dry spells and drought, which could have an adverse impact on various climate-sensitive sectors, such as water resources, agriculture, energy, health, and public safety. However, PAGASA noted that "above-normal" rainfall conditions could continue over the western section of the country through September due to the strengthened southwest monsoon, or "habagat." According to its climate forecast, El Niño's overall effects are predicted to cause dry spells in most parts of the country between the last quarter of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
(PAGASA)
El Niño increases the likelihood of “below-normal” rainfall in some areas of the country, which could have negative effects like dry spells and drought, which could have an adverse impact on various climate-sensitive sectors, such as water resources, agriculture, energy, health, and public safety. However, PAGASA noted that "above-normal" rainfall conditions could continue over the western section of the country through September due to the strengthened southwest monsoon, or "habagat." According to its climate forecast, El Niño's overall effects are predicted to cause dry spells in most parts of the country between the last quarter of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
Brace for dry conditions toward year-end
In a press conference on Tuesday, Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said the effects of El Niño may be felt throughout the country toward the end of the year as it is a "slow onset event." She said the country may still have “near-to-above normal” rainfall conditions between July and September. “Ibig sabihin, hindi pa natin nakikita yung mga potential na impact ng reduction sa tubig-ulan dulot ng El Niño [dahil] andiyan pa rin po ang ating habagat (That means, we have not yet seen the potential impacts of the reduction in rainwater caused by El Niño because the southwest monsoon is still present),” Solis said. Solis said that as of June 30, Isabela and Tarlac experienced dry condition, while Apayao, Cagayan, and Kalinga experience dry spell. She noted that these are considered early manifestations of El Niño conditions in some parts of the country. PAGASA defines a dry condition as two consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall, and a dry spell as three successive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall. “Pagdating ng December 2023 to January 2024, diyan po natin unti-unting nakikita yung potential na magiging epekto ng El Niño na posibleng magkaroon ng reduction ng tubig-ulan na posibleng mauwi sa dry spell or yung tinatawag na meteorological drought (By December 2023 to January 2024, we will begin to see the potential effect of El Niño, which will result in a decrease in rainwater, which may result in a dry spell or what is known as a meteorological drought),” she added. By the end of December this year, Solis said 28 provinces may experience dry conditions, 36 provinces may experience dry spells, and two provinces may experience drought. Drought is a prolonged dry condition characterized by five consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall or three consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall. READ: [https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/27/66-areas-likely-to-bear-brunt-of-el-nino-dry-condition-dry-spell-drought-before-year-end-pagasa](https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/27/66-areas-likely-to-bear-brunt-of-el-nino-dry-condition-dry-spell-drought-before-year-end-pagasa) By the end of January 2024, 17 provinces may experience dry spells, while 26 provinces in Luzon may have drought conditions.10 to 14 cyclones may still occur
Solis said there may still be 10 to 14 cyclones that may enter or form within the country’s area of responsibility until the end of the year—two to four in July, two or three in August, two or three in September, two or three in October, one or two in November, and one or two in December. READ: [https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/30/up-to-4-cyclones-may-enter-or-form-within-par-in-july-pagasa](https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/30/up-to-4-cyclones-may-enter-or-form-within-par-in-july-pagasa) PAGASA Officer-in-Charge Esperanza Cayanan noted that the country averages 19 to 20 cyclones, but if only up to 14 cyclones are expected this year, then there is a significant reduction in the number of tropical cyclones. “Minsan kalahati ng average annual number of cyclones ang tumatama sa atin (Sometimes half of the average annual number of cyclones hit the country),” she said. “Pero ngayon na may El Niño, hindi natin nakikita na tatama sa ating kalupaan ang karamihan sa mga ito pero posible pa rin na may mga maglalandfall (But now that there is an El Niño, we do not see most of them hitting the country, but it is still possible that some will make landfall),” she added. Based on historical records, Cayanan said the month of July has the most number of tropical cyclones during an El Niño year. “Hindi malayo na ito rin ang mangyari ngayon (This is not far from happening now),” she added.El Niño may become moderate or strong event
Citing the forecast of international climate prediction centers, Solis said there is a potential that the El Niño episode may become a moderate or strong event by next year. This means that the effects of El Niño, particularly dry and warm weather, could last longer. READ: [https://mb.com.ph/2023/4/26/pagasa-not-ruling-out-possible-strong-el-nino-this-year](https://mb.com.ph/2023/4/26/pagasa-not-ruling-out-possible-strong-el-nino-this-year) If the El Niño persists until the next warm and dry season, the temperature will be higher next year, Solis said. According to international climate prediction centers, she said that 2024 may become the warmest year on record.