Two or three tropical cyclones may form or enter the country’s area of responsibility in August, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The local names of the next tropical cyclones will be Goring, Hanna, and Ineng.

PAGASA said that cyclones in August either make landfall and cross the Philippines, or “recurve” and do not make landfall.

In August, four common climatological tracks occur: recurving toward the northern part of PAR (non-landfalling) or Japan, enhancing the effect of the southwest monsoon, or “habagat”; recurving toward the northwestern part of PAR (non-landfalling) or Taiwan, strengthening the habagat’s effect; landfalling and traversing the extreme northern islands of the Philippines, then move toward Hong Kong or Vietnam; and landfalling or traversing the northern parts of Luzon, then move toward Vietnam.

So far, six tropical cyclones have entered the country’s area of responsibility this year, namely Amang, Betty, Chedeng, Dodong, Egay, and Falcon.

(PAGASA)

Rainfall forecast

PAGASA projected "near-normal" rainfall for most of the Philippines in August and September, with a "higher probability of near to above-normal rainfall throughout the country."

The western parts of the country may still experience above-normal rainfall, especially since the southwest monsoon, associated with the rainy season, is expected to last until September.

However, by October, rainfall may be “below to near-normal” over Luzon, and “mostly near-normal” in the Visayas and Mindanao.

El Niño

PAGASA said the El Niño condition, which is still present over the tropical Pacific, may persist until the first quarter of 2024, with a potential for further strengthening in the coming months.

PAGASA confirmed the presence of El Niño conditions early in July.

“El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts, such as dry spells and droughts, in some areas of the country,” it said.

PAGASA said the widespread effects of El Niño, manifested by drier and warmer conditions than usual, will be felt in October, when the influence of the habagat begins to weaken.

Dry spell

PAGASA said 26 areas (25 in Luzon and one in Visayas) may experience dry spell by the end of 2023, while 40 provinces (14 in Luzon, 13 in Visayas, and 13 in Mindanao) may experience dry conditions.

A dry spell is defined as three successive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall, while a dry condition is defined as two consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said 18 areas in Luzon may suffer from drought, by the end of January 2024, while 45 provinces (20 in Luzon, 14 in Visayas, and 11 in Mindanao) may experience a dry spell.

Drought is defined as a prolonged dry condition characterized by five consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall or three consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall.