AC Motors, the umbrella group of the Ayala Group’s automotive business units, expects the Philippines to achieve parity in cost between electric vehicles (EVs) and internal combustion engine (ICE) in five years as government incentives, infrastructure, and supply from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) would trigger significant price reduction leading to a major shift in local adoption for cleaner mobility. “This is AC Motors fearless forecast, this is our super conservative forecast,” said AC Motors President Antonio “Toti” Zara III as he presented data on the adoption of EVs in the country during a media roundtable. “We've done a lot of research on EV adoption, we've studied external markets and this is our worst-case scenario,” he said noting that the AC Motors’ fearless forecast is also shared by the domestic automotive industry players. According to Zara, the cost of ownership (acquisition, insurance, registration, maintenance, fuel, etc.), of an EV in the country is expected to reach P2 million in five years, a tipping point for C and B segments price range, especially.  “At P2 million, we will achieve parity,” he pointed out. Based on his estimates, in five years the price is P2 million (sedan) to P3 (Crossover SUVs) for the C and B segments, respectively. While the C segment represent a small market, the sweet spot really is on the B segment, he said. EV brands in these segments are expected to come later this year and many are expected to be introduced next year, putting the EVs a step closer to the minimum price possible. Zara said this will open the possibility of cost of ownership to go down to P1.5 million to P2 million for the B segment vehicles. “We will achieve parity versus ICEs in total cost of ownership,” he added. “It's no longer a premium segment vehicle, that's when we will start seeing shifts from ICEs to EVs,” he said. What is also good for EVs is it is not only for private vehicles but also for “for hire” vehicles. He cited three factors that would make owning an EV a more attractive proposition. One is that the growth the growth is driven by OEMs. There was big jump in 2022 EV sales at 10.5 million, all supported by the OEMs, such as  China and Germany, are ramping UP their production and targets for EV adoption. For AC Motors umbrella, he said, Honda global said they are looking at two million by 2030 and Kia also at two million by 2030. Another AC Motors brand, Volkswagen announced their road to zero by 2050 and that by 2040, it targets that 50 to 70 percent of total production would be EVs. Also, sales of EVs in the Philippines are sourced from China, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia. The AC Motors figure showed the domestic motor industry is expected to reach 407,006-unit sales this year from 370,557 units last year. The growth gradually improves to 519,000-unit level by 2027 with EVs contributing 71,013 units from only 149 units in 2022 and 6,045 units in 2023. “The transformation of the Philippine market towards electrified mobility is inevitable. It's just a matter of time,” he said. In terms of incentives, Zara cited Executive Order No. 12, which grants zero duty on imported pure EVs from 30 percent and the hybrids are reduced by 50 percent over a five-year period. This reduces the purchase price of EVs significantly and allowing the introduction of mass-based market models, he said. Other incentives include the 30 percent discount on motor vehicle user’s charge, registration and inspection for eight years, and exemption from number coding. Another factor driving the parity cost is fuel. EVs now on more than 500-kilometer ranges. Mileage for EVs is 10 times more so the maintenance cost benefit for energy is significantly more, making cost of ownership  for “for hire” vehicles  cheaper. “That's what's exciting when you started seeing that conversion,” he added. In terms of infrastructure support, import duties on EV charges have been lifted for eight years. As a come on, five percent of parking slots are also dedicated for EV charging at establishments with 20 or more slots. Malls and other establishments are also putting up EV stations. The Ayala group alone is also ramping up its ecosystem together with its subsidiaries. “There are some changes within the organization. We are working to create that synergy for EVs ... we're working with Ayala Land to build the infrastructure. We have AC Industrials to bring in all the hardware charges,” he said adding that the group is also ramping up effort to build software  infrastructure that will integrate an ecosystem. “We are also working with AC energy so that we will have reuse of lithium-ion batteries after its useful life. The best use of lithium-ion batteries is for storage. We are in a unique position to build this ecosystem so we will continue our drive. We're taking this opportunity to grow our share actively and aggressively. Very excited over the next five years,” he said. With the Japanese car companies concentrating more in the hybrid car models, Zara expects that ”For the first time we will have higher share than the Japanese.” AC Motors’ brands include Kia, Volkswagen and Maxus. The Ayala Group has also stakes in Honda Cars Philippines and Isuzu Philippines. Kia Philippines new Chief Operating Officer Brian Buendia also said they could bring in four EV models out of the 15 models in different segments that Kia is planning to produce up to 2027. He said they are looking at the B and C segments crossover, but they are also very interested in the purpose-built vehicles (PBVs) because the EV commercial vehicles would really make good sense for the domestic market.