The inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Friday, June 9, narrowed its inflation forecast, while maintaining its economic growth outlook for the year.

The DBCC, a body tasked agency body tasked to set the government’s macroeconomic assumptions, revised its inflation forecast for this year to five percent to six percent from the previous range of five percent to seven percent.

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said the narrower inflation assumption was due to a consistent slowdown in consumer prices in the first four months of 2023.

Between 2024 and 2028, Pangandaman said the economic team expects the inflation rate to return to the target range of two percent to four percent.

On the other hand, the DBCC maintained its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast at six percent to seven percent for 2023.

At the same time, the growth target of 6.5 percent to 8.0 percent was also kept for 2024 to 2028, which already took into account both domestic and external risks.

“These projections have already taken into account the risks posed by El Niño and other natural disasters, global trade tensions, and value chain disruptions, among other factors,” Pangandaman said.

In the first quarter of the year, the economy expanded by 6.4 percent, making the country one of the best-performing economies in the Asia-Pacific Region.

It grew faster than other developing and emerging economies, such as Indonesia, China, and Vietnam.

Moreover, the assumption for the price of Dubai crude oil for 2023 to 2024 is maintained at $70 to $90 per barrel before stabilizing to $60 to $80 per barrel in 2025 to 2028.

“The latest future prices and forecasts still suggest falling global crude oil prices over the medium term,” Pangandaman said.

However, the peso-US dollar exchange rate assumption for 2023 is narrowed down to 54 to 57 and is expected to be broadly stable at 53 to 57 for the remainder of the medium term.

“The peso will continue to be supported by structural foreign exchange inflows and ample international reserves,” Pangandaman said.

Goods exports and imports growth projections for this year were revised downwards at one percent and two percent from three percent and four percent, respectively, following the trend in near-term global demand outlook and trade prospects.

These are expected to stabilize at six percent and eight percent, respectively, in the medium term.