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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider 66 areas likely to bear brunt of El Niño dry condition, dry spell, drought before year-end — PAGASA

66 areas likely to bear brunt of El Niño dry condition, dry spell, drought before year-end — PAGASA

Published Jun 27, 2023 09:28 am
Several provinces may experience dry conditions, dry spells, or drought by the fourth quarter of 2023 due to the looming El Niño climate phenomenon, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Tuesday, June 27. According to PAGASA’s climate outlook, dry conditions may prevail in 28 provinces, while dry spell may affect 36 areas by the end of the year. It defines a dry condition as two consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall, and a dry spell as three successive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall. Meanwhile, two provinces may experience drought—a prolonged dry condition characterized by five consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall or three consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall. (Photo courtesy of Pixabay)
Based on PAGASA’s forecast, the provinces that may experience dry conditions are the following: Luzon: Abra, Batanes, Cagayan Visayas: Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor Mindanao: Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Basilan, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-tawi Meanwhile, the following areas are likely to be affected by a dry spell: Luzon: Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Metro Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Palawan, Spratly Islands, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes Visayas: Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte Meanwhile, PAGASA said Southern Leyte and Camarines Norte may experience drought by the end of December.

PAGASA may declare start of El Niño soon

 PAGASA on Tuesday said that an “El Niño condition” is already present in the tropical Pacific and will last through the first quarter of 2024. The El Niño or warm phase is characterized by unusually warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. However, it explained that there are still some parameters that need to be satisfied before it can declare the start of El Niño in the country. PAGASA said that it will issue its first El Niño advisory “as appropriate.” According to PAGASA, El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative effects, such as dry spells and droughts, in some parts of the country between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. However, it noted that the western parts of the country may still receive “above-normal” rainfall during the southwest monsoon or “habagat” season from May to September, before the predicted impact of El Niño from October to December.

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Drought PAGASA El Niño
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