The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) may soon issue its first El Niño advisory due to the impending arrival of El Niño in the country.
“We are looking forward to the issuance of the El Niño advisory. Right now, we are on El Niño alert status, but we’re heading to El Niño advisory status,” PAGASA Officer-in-Charge Dr. Esperanza Cayanan said in a mix of Filipino and English during a press conference on Tuesday, June 20.
An El Niño Watch was issued on March 23, as part of PAGASA’s El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System, before the weather bureau raised the monitoring status to El Niño Alert on May 2.
An El Niño advisory is issued when the climate event reaches “full-blown” El Niño status.
“We’re just waiting to see if the required atmospheric conditions—not just the oceanic conditions—are met, because the atmosphere must respond to rising sea surface temperatures in order to declare the arrival of El Niño,” Cayanan said.
PAGASA’s El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System
She pointed out that the probability that El Niño is developing and will continue towards the last quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 is “very high.”
“Sigurado na tayo na nandiyan ‘yung El Niño (We are sure that El Niño is there),” she said.
The El Niño or warm phase is characterized by unusually warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
According to PAGASA, El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative impacts, such as dry spells and droughts, in some parts of the country between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
However, PAGASA pointed out that the western parts of the country may still receive “above-normal” rainfall during the southwest monsoon or “habagat” season during the pre-development stage of El Niño.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory on June 8, saying that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to strengthen gradually into the winter.