The 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia this week will focus on several key issues, such as: Strengthening ASEAN institutions, drafting the ASEAN Post-2025 Vision, developments in Myanmar, post-pandemic economic recovery, and strengthening the health architecture in the region. After three successive years in which it was held under the cloud of the pandemic, this summit is the first to be convened after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the Covid-19 global public health emergency. This enables the ASEAN countries to focus on resuming the growth trajectory of their economies – an outcome that could be assured only if a more resilient health architecture is put in place for coping with future challenges.
After posting a 5.5 percent growth in 2022, ASEAN is one of the fastest-growing regions in the world. The Asian Development Bank projects ASEAN growth to fall slightly to 4.7 percent as global demand softens. The outlook for the second half of 2023 is more robust due to falling inflation rates that are more conducive to organic growth. Steady growth in foreign direct investment is also seen despite a more challenging macroeconomic environment. The Philippines’ priorities are: Long-term food and energy security; economic recovery efforts; combating transnational crimes; upgrading of technical and vocational education and training; adopting climate and disaster-resilient technologies and transitioning to renewable and alternative energy technologies; and protection of migrant workers.
China’s continuing flexing of its maritime presence in the South China Sea and other international waters is also likely to be discussed. Directly affected are Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Despite a ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that rejected China’s nine-dash line theory of ascendancy in the South China Sea (SCS), its coast guard and civilian naval militia continue to make their presence felt in ways that have triggered numerous diplomatic protests. Meantime, the long-running discussions on a Code of Conduct still seem far from being conclusive. Recent tensions between China and the United States on account of Taiwan are also concerning to ASEAN. Being at the center of the first island chain of the West Pacific, its stability is crucial to the viability of global shipping and logistics. Its huge trade volume with the US also makes it a critical global chain partner.
Fresh from a highly productive US visit, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. is attending the second ASEAN summit of his presidency, six months after his debut in regional diplomacy at the Bangkok summit.
A niche opportunity for advancing the frontiers of economic diplomacy is in the BIMP-EAGA summit in which he will meet with Prime Minister Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei Darussalam, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia and President Joko Widodo of Indonesia. In their discussions on the East Asian Growth Area, President Marcos could offer the other three countries which are more richly endowed in terms of natural resources – especially oil and fossil fuels – complementation with the Philippines’ well-trained people resources that would be pivotal in charting East Asia’s long-term growth.