One or two tropical cyclones may enter or form PAR in June, three or four in July, two or three in August, two or three in September, two or three in October, and one or two in November.
During the pre-development stage of El Niño, parts of the country may still receive “above-normal” rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, or “habagat.”
There are more tropical cyclones that usually form during July when there is an El Niño.
In terms of tropical cyclone category entering PAR during an El Niño, September has a higher number of typhoons and super typhoons.
During El Niño years, there are more super typhoon and typhoon category tropical cyclones that make landfall in October and November.
11 to 14 cyclones may enter, form inside PAR from June to November — PAGASA
May 24, 2023 10:14 AM
At a glance
Amid a developing El Niño, 11 to 14 tropical cyclones may develop or enter the country’s area of responsibility between June and November this year, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said in a climate outlook forum on Wednesday, May 24 that one or two tropical cyclones may enter or form PAR in June, three or four in July, two or three in August, two or three in September, two or three in October, and one or two in November.
During these months, Solis said cyclones may “recurve,” meaning they will not directly affect the Philippines, while others may make “landfall” or cross the country.
(Image courtesy of Pixabay)
El Niño likely in next few months
According to the latest El Niño forecast, Solis said that a “transition from ENSO-neutral [where neither La Niña nor El Niño persists] to El Niño is favored in the next couple of months, with a higher chance of El Niño persisting up to the first quarter of 2024.”
El Niño increases the possibility of “below-normal” rainfall, which could have unfavorable effects, like dry spells and droughts in some regions of the country.
However, Solis pointed out that during the pre-development stage of El Niño, parts of the country may still receive “above-normal” rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, or “habagat.”
Citing PAGASA data from 1960 to 2021, Solis also said there are more tropical cyclones that usually form during July when there is an El Niño.
In terms of tropical cyclone category entering PAR during an El Niño, she noted that September has a higher number of typhoons and super typhoons.
Meanwhile, she pointed out that during El Niño years, there are more super typhoon and typhoon category tropical cyclones that make landfall in October and November.
“El Niño’s early impact is seen by October-November, especially in Bicol, Mimaropa, and some portions of Western Visayas. It may start to affect Mindanao by November,” she said.
Furthermore, Solis noted that a warmer-than-usual northeast monsoon season, or “amihan,” could prevail in November, as a result of El Niño.