Rainy season may start by end of May or early June — PAGASA

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Saturday, May 20, said the rainy season is near.

(Jansen Romero / Manila Bulletin File Photo)

PAGASA Weather Specialist Benison Estareja, in a public weather forecast on Saturday, said the rainy season may be declared at the end of May or early June.

“Sa mga nagtatanong kung posible na bang magsimula ang tag-ulan anytime, ang sagot po natin d’yan ay posible itong magsimula sometime sa mga huling araw ng Mayo – maaaring later next week – hanggang sa mga unang araw ng Hunyo (To those who are asking if it is possible for the rainy season to start anytime, our answer is that it is possible to start sometime in the last days of May – maybe later next week – until the first days of June),” said Estareja.

The onset of the rainy season will be declared once PAGASA’s criteria are observed and satisfied. These include the following: at least seven stations or 50 percent of monitoring stations must record a five-day period with a total rainfall of 25 mm or more and at least one mm rainfall for three consecutive days. In addition, prevailing winds should have westerly components over the western Philippines as this relates to the development of rainfall-causing weather patterns according to the state weather bureau.

Prevailing weather systems

Estareja, in the same weather forecast, said they are currently monitoring two weather systems. One of these two is the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) causing cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, and Palawan.

The other weather system is a tropical depression outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR). It was last spotted 2,510 kilometers (km) east of Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 45 kph and gustiness of 55 kph.

According to Estareja, if the weather disturbance continues to move northwestward, it may enter PAR by Friday or Saturday next week. It will be given the domestic name Betty.

“If this track continues, the odds are low that it will hit the Philippine landmass. But what we should monitor is the enhancement of the southwest monsoon next week,” he added in a mix of English and Filipino.