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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PAGASA raises El Niño Alert

PAGASA raises El Niño Alert

Published May 2, 2023 05:15 am
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has raised the possibility of El Niño developing in the coming months from “watch” to “alert,” the second to last stage of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System. “Recent conditions and model forecasts indicate that El Niño may emerge in the coming season, June-July-August, at 80 percent probability and may persist until the first quarter of 2024,” PAGASA said in an advisory released on Tuesday, May 2. “With this development, the PAGASA El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Alert,” it added. (Photo by Pixabay)
The El Niño Watch has been in effect since March 23, before PAGASA changed the monitoring status to El Niño Alert. “When conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next two months at a probability of 70 percent or more, an El Niño alert is issued,” PAGASA explained. The next and final stage of the ENSO Alert System is activated when the climate phenomenon reaches “full-blown” El Niño status.  The El Niño or warm phase is characterized by unusually warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. According to PAGASA, El Niño raises the likelihood of below-average rainfall conditions, which might have adverse impact, such as drought and dry spells in several parts of the country. However, PAGASA pointed out the probability of above-average rainfall conditions over the western portion of the country during the southwest monsoon, also known as “habagat” season. “All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño,” it said.

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