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'What will the weather do?': PH multi-hazard impact forecasting, early warning system unveiled

Published Apr 26, 2023 05:19 am
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) officially launched the five-year Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Early Warning System for the Philippines Project or the GCF-IBFPh Project on Wednesday, April 26. The GCF-IBFPh, which is the country’s first Green Climate Fund project, has a total budget of US$22 million. The GCF Grant Proceeds amount to US$10 million and PAGASA’s co-financing (in-kind) amounts to US$12 million.
From left to right: Tuguegarao City Mayor Rosario Tinq-Que, Department of the Interior and Local Government Director Edgar Allan Tabell, Palo Mayor Remedios Petilla, Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum, PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano, PAGASA Deputy Administrator and GCF-IBFPh Project Leader Esperanza Cayanan, and PAGASA-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Chief and IBFPh Assistant Project Leader Thelma Cinco during the Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Early Warning System for the Philippines Project launching and press conference on April 26, 2023. (Photo by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz)
During the project launch at the Crowne Plaza Manila Galleria in Quezon City, PAGASA Deputy Administrator and GCF-IBFPh Project Leader Esperanza Cayanan explained that the project will address the urgent need for a more proactive and inclusive climate risk management in the Philippines, anchored on a people-centered multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and early warning systems for flood, landslide, severe wind, and storm surge. It will catalyze a paradigm shift from traditional weather forecasts to multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and early warning system, she added. Moreover, PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano said the project is focused on the preventive aspects of disaster management by communicating to all stakeholders as to “what the weather will do” rather than “what the weather will be” thus enabling the public to take appropriate actions during the “window of anticipation” or “lead-time” before the hazard event occurs. “There are many large-scale disasters that we all need to prepare for,” Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum said. “By focusing on impacts, disaster management agencies, local government units, and the general public will have a better understanding of the risk, and will be more likely take appropriate actions because now you can imagine the disaster risk that will happen not only to your community but to your family and to you as an individual,” he pointed out. The IBF-PH Project will be undertaken in the vulnerable barangays of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan; Legazpi City Albay; Palo, Leyte; and New Bataan, Davao de Oro. It will run for five years, from 2022 to 2027. PAGASA will be the lead executing agency, while the Land Bank of the Philippines will be the direct access entity. Other implementing partners include the Department of the Interior and Local Government, Office of Civil Defense, Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Mines and Geosciences Bureau, United Nations World Food Programme, and the local government units in Region 2, Region 5, Region 8, and Region 11. Other collaborators also include the National Economic and Development Authority, Department of Finance, Climate Change Commission, and Philippine Commision on Women. “Overall, the efforts of these partner-collaborators would contribute to a paradigm shift from a traditional hazard-based to impact-based forecasting and early warning system, which combines the best available science and local knowledge on forecasting and risk assessment,” Malano said. The major component of the project is the development of timely and actionable warning information to end-users, particularly at-risk communities, to reduce their exposure to climate risks and to strengthen their adaptive capacities to better manage and adjust to impacts brought about by extreme weather events. PAGASA expects that in adopting an Impact-Based Forecasting Early Warning System, communicating risk effectively to the people most vulnerable to disasters is one of the desired changes during the project implementation.

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