The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is not discounting the possibility that the looming El Niño could reach “strong” intensity by the end of 2023, which means its impact could be more severe than a mild event.

In the PAGASA’s climate outlook forum on Wednesday, April 26, PAGASA weather specialist Rusy Abastillas said there is a 41 percent chance that the El Niño phenomenon this year may become a strong event.

“For the strength of this El Niño event, it [the forecast] shows that the probability for a weak to moderate El Niño is more than 50 percent, 87 percent na magiging (that it will) be weak, and 67 percent na magiging (that it will be) moderate,” Abastillas said.

“But there is also a 41 percent chance na puwede siyang maging (that it may become) strong by November-December-January. So makikita pa rin natin na there is still a chance na puwede siya maging strong, but as of now mas mataas ‘yung weak to moderate probability for this El Niño. (So we are seeing that there is still a chance for this to be strong, but as of now the weak-to-moderate probability for this El Niño is higher),” she added.

The last El Niño episode was in 2018-2019, which was weak.

(Courtesy of PAGASA)

Abastillas cited three historical El Niño events that have similar conditions to the looming El Niño.

“‘Yung similar conditions of the forecasted El Niño event this year is puwedeng nating maihahalintulad sa 2004-2005 El Niño, which is also weak El Niño. Nagstart siya ng June-July-August and nag-end ng January-February-March, or ‘yung moderate El Niño noong 2002 and 2003 na nag-start ng May-June-July at nag-end ng January-February-March (The similar conditions of this year’s expected El Niño event are comparable to the 2004-2005 El Niño, which was also a weak El Niño. It started in June-July-August and ended in January-February-March, or the moderate El Niño in 2002 and 2003, which started in May-June-July and ended in January-February-March),” she said.

She noted that the last strong El Niño was in 2009-2010, which occurred after a La Niña event.

The 21st century’s first “triple-dip” La Niña or La Niña event that occurred for three consecutive years has only occurred from 2021 to 2023. This rare phenomenon also happened in 1973-1976 and 1998-2001.

Abastillas pointed out that the PAGASA will upgrade its advisory from “El Niño Watch” to “El Niño Alert” next month.

This means that the probability of El Niño developing in the next couple of months has increased to 80 percent.

“A transition from ENSO-neutral [where neither La Niña nor El Niño persists] to El Niño is favored during the May-June-July 2023 season, with chances of El Niño increasing towards the first quarter of 2024,” Abastillas said.

El Niño, or warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

PAGASA said this climate phenomenon increases the possibility of below-normal rainfall conditions, which may cause negative effects, such as drought and dry spell, in some areas of the country.