DAVAO CITY – El Niño is expected to have a severe impact on agriculture and hydropower industries in the country if the phenomenon develops in the third quarter of this year, an official of Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa)-Davao said.
Lolit Vinala, chief meteorological officer of Pagasa-Davao, said that there is a 55 percent probability for El Niño to develop between July and September this year or after the dry season currently experienced in the country.
Vinala said the impact of this phenomenon, characterized by fewer occurrences of rainfall and typhoons, would be felt starting in the last quarter of 2023, and would last until the second semester of 2024.
She added that a moderate or intense El Niño would have an adverse impact on the water supply due to less rainfall, affecting industries dependent on water such as agriculture and hydropower.
Vinala said agriculture would be heavily affected because of the decline in soil moisture, decreasing crop production “due to the delayed onset of the rainy season and increase in pests and diseases.”
The drought will likely result in 60 percent reduction in rainfall, she said.
“That’s a disaster for our agricultural products if we will have a reduction in rainfall,” she said.
She said the agency has yet to determine the intensity of the impending drought, be it weak, moderate, or intense.
Vinala said the reduction of water supply would affect dams, irrigation, and hydropower generation and result in the over extraction of groundwater.
She added that the less rainfall would impact forest resources while the increase in temperature might likely cause fish kills and red tides.
This may also jack up the cost of potable water, she said.
She said the heat index ranging from 38 to 42 degrees Celsius in this city is not yet the effect of El Niño.
Vinala said the high index is caused by easterlies or warm air from the Pacific Ocean while the sudden heavy rainfall in the evening is caused by a localized thunderstorm.