The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday, April 18 projected an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing between June and August, up from the previous forecast of 55 percent last month.

PAGASA Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan in a televised briefing said they may upgrade its advisory from “El Niño Watch” to “El Niño Alert” in May, as the probability of El Niño developing during the June-August period has increased to 80 percent.

She added that the likelihood of El Niño occurring from November-December 2023 to January 2024 increased to 86 percent.

“So from El Niño watch, by next month, May, we will be issuing the second level which is El Niño alert kung saan mayroon po tayong (where we have) above 70 percent probability of El Niño occurrence for the next two months,” Cayanan said.

(Courtesy of PAGASA)

She pointed out that before the country feels the effect of the El Niño phenomenon, there will still be the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon or “habagat” season.

“From previous experience po natin, puwede po tayong maka-experience ng extreme rainfall event kagaya po ng isang example noong Ondoy noong 2009 wherein nagkaroon po kasi tayo ng El Niño 2009, 2010. Pero bago natin naramdaman iyong kakulangan sa tubig, naka-experience po tayo ng extreme [rainfall] events (From our previous experience, we had extreme rainfall events like Ondoy in 2009 where we had El Niño in 2009-2010. But before we felt that lack of water, we had extreme rainfall events),” Cayanan said.

“Ang posibleng impacts po nito [El Niño] in some areas of the country ay iyon pong drought or dry spell, but this will be felt towards the last quarter (The possible impacts of El Niño in some areas of the country are drought or dry spell, but this will be felt towards the last quarter),” she added.

Based on the PAGASA’s rainfall forecast, “near-normal” rainfall will prevail throughout the country in May.

Most of the country will have near-normal rainfall in June except for the western section of Central Luzon where above-normal rainfall may prevail.

PAGASA said there will be a “high probability” for near-normal rainfall in most parts of the country in July and near-normal rainfall in most parts of the country with some areas in western Luzon likely to receive above-normal rainfall and patches of below-normal rainfall in Visayas and Mindanao in August.