FINDING ANSWERS

Many questions about the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and its four new sites have been raised. Foremost among them are: Would EDCA drag the Philippines into a United States-China war over Taiwan? Would the additional EDCA sites deter China from attacking Taiwan? And varied viewpoints have also been raised by the EDCA issue. Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian, for instance, said the announcement of the new EDCA sites near Taiwan “caused widespread and grave concern among Chinese people.”
“Obviously, the US intends to take advantage of the new EDCA sites to interfere in the situation across the Taiwan Strait to serve its geopolitical goals, and advance its anti-China agenda at the expense of peace and development of the Philippines and the region at large,” Huang said in a forum last Friday.
But what ignited intense criticism from senators and other sectors were these remarks from the Chinese ambassador: “The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the US access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 OFWs.”
Many see it as a threat as it was said in the context of “using force” against Taiwan, as can be gleaned from his statement preceding the remarks: “Some tried to find excuse for the new EDCA sites by citing the safety of the 150,000 OFWs in Taiwan, while China is the last country that wishes to see conflict over the Strait because people on both sides are Chinese. But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities.”
With China intent on taking over Taiwan, which it regards as a “renegade province” ever since, by all means necessary, it can be said that the more there is reason for EDCA sites near Taiwan – to be of help in the massive evacuation of OFWs in the event of war when mass migration of Taiwanese nationals can make the situation more challenging.
And when China attacks Taiwan, the US is expected to defend the island nation as US President Biden has said repeatedly in the past as he veered toward “strategic clarity” on what the US response would be.
When war breaks out and the US gets sucked in, it’s inevitable that US forces would be attacked which, in turn, could trigger the use of the 1951 Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) which states: “Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes. (Art. 4).”
The MDT also states: “For the purpose of Article IV, an armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the Island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.”
Many scenarios have been presented by international security analysts on how the Chinese offensive may look like. One scenario is a preemptive strike against the US military forces stationed in Guam. If the MDT is invoked by the US, the Philippines is expected to oblige. Thus, with or without EDCA, the probability is high that the Philippines would be drawn into a China-US war over Taiwan because of the MDT.
Therefore, those who believe that the new EDCA sites would not necessarily provoke China because of its previously declared intention of taking Taiwan by all means have a point. EDCA can even be viewed as a deterrent, as explained by Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez. “We, together with like-minded countries, want to prevent an armed conflict from occurring within our area. At the same time, we want to deter any more incursions into our  territory and exclusive economic zones. No one can dispute that we have been very patient in the face of the aggression that China has been repeatedly demonstrating for so many years, where we have been filing diplomatic protests for every instance of bullying against our fishermen and the harassment to which they have been subjecting our Coast Guard personnel in areas that are unquestionably within our exclusive economic zone,” Ambassador Romualdez wrote.
If EDCA would indeed prevent China from attacking Taiwan and breaking through the so-called First Island Chain, the Philippines would make a major contribution to the preservation of global stability. Our country’s alliance with the US that deters an attack on Taiwan would prevent a crippling of the global semiconductor supply chain, and thus, avoiding catastrophic implications to international economics and security. Email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])