OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT
Climatelinks, a global knowledge portal on climate change and international development, could not have put it more precisely, that the Philippines is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, including sea level rise, increased frequency of extreme weather events like rising temperatures and extreme rainfall. We have long coastlines which host key cities and majority of the population, we depend on climate-sensitive natural resources which are increasingly running out like agriculture and forestry. Our major problem is managing climate change, its adverse consequences on our economic activities being existential.
As a people, we seem to have failed our environment.
In our youth, we recall watching movies and paying at least 25 centavos in flood tax that never succeeded in arresting floods that gets high and more destructive with the years. We have retained the distinction of paving roads before doing the drainage, dredging rivers with equipment that seldom worked. We could not enforce our forest laws, so we opted for total ban on logging activities which nonetheless continue to this day. As the Philippine Institute for Development Studies reported two years ago, “forest loss persists in the Philippines even with a log ban and protection laws in place.” Land use conversion, exclusion of reforestation activities as part of climate change mitigation measures and legal gaps in protecting our forests are among the culprits.
Our very own Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) admits that climate change is happening now. But it is evident that such a change is beyond what lawyers and insurers refer to as acts of God. “The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system is most likely to be due to human activities…” Public policy and enforcement should be driven by climate concern, or else, our economic prospects could be very dim.
We expect more than a public policy that calls for mere water conservation to keep water in power dams from dropping to alarming levels. We need to root out the fundamental problem of environmental degradation, instead of insisting on the old solutions like deep wells. We don’t even have a semblance of water impounding facilities. Additional water treatment facilities like those in Cardona and Putatan would certainly help augment our water supply as long as alternative sources are also found. Senator Nancy Binay, commenting on the Rainwater Collector and Springs Development Act, was spot on: “We have been beset with the effects of El Niño for decades and every time the dry season comes, we are often caught by surprise by a water shortage.”
Needless to say, this year’s growth target of 6-7 percent and 6.5-8 percent in 2024 as well as the latest inflation forecasts of the BSP of 6 percent and 2.9 percent for the next two years must also hinge on the expected turnout of the weather this year and the next. Admitting that “the balance of risks to the inflation outlook for 2023 and 2024 also continue to tilt heavily towards the upside,” the Board in its press statement last Thursday highlighted the impact of food supply shortages, higher transport fares, rising power rates and wage adjustments in 2023. A more explicit recognition of bad weather conditions could help prepare the public’s inflation expectations.
In fact, most recent weather bulletins from PAGASA show that La Niña or wet conditions have come to an end, shifting to more ENSO (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation)-neutral conditions — those periods when neither El Niño or La Niña is happening. If the weather monitoring indicates that this neutral condition is expected to occur until around the middle of the year, we don’t know what to expect between now and then, and for the rest of the year when El Niño actually sets in.
This early, PAGASA has warned the public to take all precautions as temperatures continue to climb. Temperatures in Celsius are expected to rise to as much as 45 degrees in Metro Manila, 32 degrees in Iloilo, and 35 degrees in Zamboanga. During the weekend, the mercury exceeded 30 degrees, a temperature level considered by PAGASA as “dangerous.” It could cause heat cramps and exhaustion, and in some cases, even death.
Yes, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has announced its preparation for El Niño and its potential impact on agriculture especially rice. With a required 52-day rice inventory, DA announced it might have to resort to importation should domestic output falls short of requirement for food security. Recurring almost every two years to 10 years, this year’s El Niño could cause the importation of at least 3.8 million metric tons, the level in 2022. This is bad news for rice supply, this is bad news for inflation.
The other wild card against growth and inflation is the risk of power interruption. With the summer months fast approaching, energy demand is expected to rise. With this unusually torrid summer, we could only expect ever receding water levels in many dams and waterways, knocking off some megawatts from the power grid. Ironically, demand for water in the coming summer months is expected to bloat by 15 percent. How does one sustain real GDP growth of over 7 percent when power is deficient?
The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) had already sounded the alarm because of another reason. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) rejected its request to extend its monthly ancillary services agreements. Without these agreements, NGCP cannot nominate power plants to provide such services that are crucial in managing power fluctuations. Unless the ERC reconsiders its decision, or the Department of Energy authorizes month-to-month extension of existing agreements, the general public should prepare for periodic power interruptions due to what NGCP calls “automatic load dropping.” Rotational blackouts could make a big dent in domestic production and inflation.
We are plodding into the summer months but the news we gather every day is wintry. Suppose for once we buckle down to real work and fight those battles that really matter, and get those existential threats out of the way?