Catastrophic eruption still possible
Published Jan 16, 2020 12:00 am
By Alexandria San Juan, Agence France-Presse, and Aaron Recuenco
The threat of Taal Volcano unleashing a potentially catastrophic eruption remains high, authorities warned Thursday, saying it was showing dangerous signs despite a “lull” in spewing ash.
Phivolcs director Renato Solidum talks situation in Taal as he shows to media the monitoring room following a press briefing at phivolcs, January 15, 2019. (Mark Balmores)
Scores of earthquakes rattle the region daily and large fissures are opening up in the ground, which means the magma that would fuel a major eruption is still flowing beneath.
With this development, police and military forces have imposed a lockdown in several areas in Batangas as authorities rush to clear the 14-kilometer radius danger zone which is described as the striking distance of the feared lateral eruption of Taal Volcano.
Total lockdown
As of Thursday, the towns of Agoncillo, Laurel, and Talisay are in a total lockdown which means that not a single person, especially local residents, is allowed to enter the three municipalities which are currently the hardest hit by the ash ejections from the volcano.
Col. Edwin Quilates, director of the Batangas Provincial Police, said they already deployed significant number of policemen in entry and exit points of the three towns to ensure that no one would dare to enter the towns.
The policemen are augmented by military forces in securing the mainland areas close to Taal Volcano while a number of Philippine Coast Guard personnel were also deployed to patrol the shoreline of the Taal Lake.
Aside from the three towns, authorities are targeting the total evacuation of residents in the town of Balete. Currently, 11 barangays in Balete town were already cleared of local residents, while two more barangays are being cleared.
Also, police and military forces are also evacuating people from 21 barangays of Tanauan City, and some barangays of Malvar, Lipa, and Cuenca which are close to the rumbling Taal Volcano.
“The instruction to us is to prevent residents from going back. All people inside these areas should be going out, not going in because of the danger once a major eruption occurs,” said Quilates.
Taal Volcano is currently under Alert Level 4, which means an imminent hazardous eruption would likely to occur anytime. The next and last alert level is Alert Level 5 which means hazardous eruption ongoing.
READ MORE: Police, military imposing lockdown in Taal’s 14-km danger zone
566 volcanic quakes
A total of 103 volcanic quakes were plotted by the Philippine Seismic Network from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. Fourteen of these were registered at magnitudes 1.4 to 4.0 and were felt at Intensities I to III.
This brings the total number of tremblors recorded to 566 since Taal's phreatic or steam-driven eruption on Sunday.
But authorities are struggling to keep evacuees, some 50,000 of whom fled to shelters after Taal burst to life Sunday, away from the danger zone around the volcano.
People are trying to get back to homes they left in a hurry to get a change of clothes, feed livestock and pets, and check on properties damaged by the fissures or covered with a thick layer of ash.
“Please allow us to observe the lull period for now. We are studying what that means,” Maria Antonia Bornas, Phivolcs Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division chief, told reporters.
“A long lull could be just a break from volcanic activity,” she said. “The danger remains.”
Bornas said the repeated tremors, which are slightly stronger for a volcanic quake, signifies that there is still a movement of magma beneath Taal.
This continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice may lead to further eruptive activity, Phivolcs warned.
In their latest analysis, Bornas also noted that the amount of sulfur dioxide that has been emitted by the volcano spiked again, indicating that there is an upward movement of magma to the surface.
“The amount of sulfur dioxide emission in Taal increased again. This is an indication of presence of magma that may trigger eruption,” she said.
Bornas said Taal's sulfur dioxide emission was measured at 4,186 tons per day as of January 15 – significantly higher than the average 1,686 tons per day recorded on January 14.
Weak emissions
On Thursday morning, Taal Volcano erupted short-lived dark gray ash plumes reaching only 500 to 800 meters high that dispersed ash southwest to west of the main crater.
Phivolcs also noted that Taal's activity in the past 24 hours “generally waned” to weak emission of steam-laden plumes reaching 700 meters high that dispersed ash to the southwest.
“At this stage, we are still not discounting the possibility of an explosive eruption but we are now looking into the possibility that there may be a lull for a considerable period of time,” she said.
“We will monitor and find out what this apparent silence of the volcano means. There are still continuous volcanic quakes, though lesser, the tremors are slightly stronger, and SO₂ also increased, so we have to evaluate what does this mean,” Bornas explained.
Historically, Bornas said that this somewhat prolonged eruptions of Taal is usual, similar to what happened in 1754 when the province of Batangas experienced a devastating eruption lasting almost seven months.
“Lulls are usual during a volcanic eruption, especially in Taal which experienced a prolonged eruption back in 1754,” she bared.
The 1754 eruption which is Taal Volcano's biggest eruption to date buried several towns in Batangas under ash, volcanic rocks, and water.
“Taal's current behavior, its silence, is somewhat tricky as parameters such as intense tremors and higher sulfur dioxide are still present. It is necessary to evaluate how long will this happen,” she said.
These parameters are among the reasons Phivolcs still advised the total evacuation of the volcano island and high-risk areas identified in the hazard maps within the 14-kilometer radius from the main crater as a precaution for an “imminent explosive eruption.”
Authorities have warned since Sunday that the volcano, which sits south of Manila and is one of the country's most active, could let loose a powerful eruption in “hours or days”.
Taal's last eruption was in 1977, but it has a long history of activity. In 1965 an eruption at the volcano, which is a popular tourist attraction set in a picturesque lake, killed some 200 people.
The country's most powerful explosion in recent years was the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, about 100 kilometres northwest of Manila, which killed more than 800 people.
Horse rescued
Meanwhile, residents rescued more animals, mostly horses, from Taal Volcano Island Thursday morning.
The Manila Bulletin saw at least 25 horses in Barangay Sta. Maria, Talisay around 9 a.m. They were recently rescued from the volcano island and transported via boat.
Earlier, several horses were rescued from the island.
“Ang mga kabayo’y karugtong na ng aming buhay... Syempre, sila ang aming pinagkakakitaan,” Edwin Maguinao said.
Horses had been a help for residents of the volcano island, particularly tourist guides, since they were used by tourists visiting the crater of the Taal Volcano.
Jana Sevilla, senior rescue coordinator of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), believes that some 3,000 horses were in the area before the volcano started its eruptive activities. (With a report from Joseph Pedrajas)
READ MORE: Residents rescue more animals from Taal volcano island; PETA offers sanctuary to some
Phivolcs director Renato Solidum talks situation in Taal as he shows to media the monitoring room following a press briefing at phivolcs, January 15, 2019. (Mark Balmores)
Scores of earthquakes rattle the region daily and large fissures are opening up in the ground, which means the magma that would fuel a major eruption is still flowing beneath.
With this development, police and military forces have imposed a lockdown in several areas in Batangas as authorities rush to clear the 14-kilometer radius danger zone which is described as the striking distance of the feared lateral eruption of Taal Volcano.
Total lockdown
As of Thursday, the towns of Agoncillo, Laurel, and Talisay are in a total lockdown which means that not a single person, especially local residents, is allowed to enter the three municipalities which are currently the hardest hit by the ash ejections from the volcano.
Col. Edwin Quilates, director of the Batangas Provincial Police, said they already deployed significant number of policemen in entry and exit points of the three towns to ensure that no one would dare to enter the towns.
The policemen are augmented by military forces in securing the mainland areas close to Taal Volcano while a number of Philippine Coast Guard personnel were also deployed to patrol the shoreline of the Taal Lake.
Aside from the three towns, authorities are targeting the total evacuation of residents in the town of Balete. Currently, 11 barangays in Balete town were already cleared of local residents, while two more barangays are being cleared.
Also, police and military forces are also evacuating people from 21 barangays of Tanauan City, and some barangays of Malvar, Lipa, and Cuenca which are close to the rumbling Taal Volcano.
“The instruction to us is to prevent residents from going back. All people inside these areas should be going out, not going in because of the danger once a major eruption occurs,” said Quilates.
Taal Volcano is currently under Alert Level 4, which means an imminent hazardous eruption would likely to occur anytime. The next and last alert level is Alert Level 5 which means hazardous eruption ongoing.
READ MORE: Police, military imposing lockdown in Taal’s 14-km danger zone
566 volcanic quakes
A total of 103 volcanic quakes were plotted by the Philippine Seismic Network from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. Fourteen of these were registered at magnitudes 1.4 to 4.0 and were felt at Intensities I to III.
This brings the total number of tremblors recorded to 566 since Taal's phreatic or steam-driven eruption on Sunday.
But authorities are struggling to keep evacuees, some 50,000 of whom fled to shelters after Taal burst to life Sunday, away from the danger zone around the volcano.
People are trying to get back to homes they left in a hurry to get a change of clothes, feed livestock and pets, and check on properties damaged by the fissures or covered with a thick layer of ash.
“Please allow us to observe the lull period for now. We are studying what that means,” Maria Antonia Bornas, Phivolcs Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division chief, told reporters.
“A long lull could be just a break from volcanic activity,” she said. “The danger remains.”
Bornas said the repeated tremors, which are slightly stronger for a volcanic quake, signifies that there is still a movement of magma beneath Taal.
This continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice may lead to further eruptive activity, Phivolcs warned.
In their latest analysis, Bornas also noted that the amount of sulfur dioxide that has been emitted by the volcano spiked again, indicating that there is an upward movement of magma to the surface.
“The amount of sulfur dioxide emission in Taal increased again. This is an indication of presence of magma that may trigger eruption,” she said.
Bornas said Taal's sulfur dioxide emission was measured at 4,186 tons per day as of January 15 – significantly higher than the average 1,686 tons per day recorded on January 14.
Weak emissions
On Thursday morning, Taal Volcano erupted short-lived dark gray ash plumes reaching only 500 to 800 meters high that dispersed ash southwest to west of the main crater.
Phivolcs also noted that Taal's activity in the past 24 hours “generally waned” to weak emission of steam-laden plumes reaching 700 meters high that dispersed ash to the southwest.
“At this stage, we are still not discounting the possibility of an explosive eruption but we are now looking into the possibility that there may be a lull for a considerable period of time,” she said.
“We will monitor and find out what this apparent silence of the volcano means. There are still continuous volcanic quakes, though lesser, the tremors are slightly stronger, and SO₂ also increased, so we have to evaluate what does this mean,” Bornas explained.
Historically, Bornas said that this somewhat prolonged eruptions of Taal is usual, similar to what happened in 1754 when the province of Batangas experienced a devastating eruption lasting almost seven months.
“Lulls are usual during a volcanic eruption, especially in Taal which experienced a prolonged eruption back in 1754,” she bared.
The 1754 eruption which is Taal Volcano's biggest eruption to date buried several towns in Batangas under ash, volcanic rocks, and water.
“Taal's current behavior, its silence, is somewhat tricky as parameters such as intense tremors and higher sulfur dioxide are still present. It is necessary to evaluate how long will this happen,” she said.
These parameters are among the reasons Phivolcs still advised the total evacuation of the volcano island and high-risk areas identified in the hazard maps within the 14-kilometer radius from the main crater as a precaution for an “imminent explosive eruption.”
Authorities have warned since Sunday that the volcano, which sits south of Manila and is one of the country's most active, could let loose a powerful eruption in “hours or days”.
Taal's last eruption was in 1977, but it has a long history of activity. In 1965 an eruption at the volcano, which is a popular tourist attraction set in a picturesque lake, killed some 200 people.
The country's most powerful explosion in recent years was the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, about 100 kilometres northwest of Manila, which killed more than 800 people.
Horse rescued
Meanwhile, residents rescued more animals, mostly horses, from Taal Volcano Island Thursday morning.
The Manila Bulletin saw at least 25 horses in Barangay Sta. Maria, Talisay around 9 a.m. They were recently rescued from the volcano island and transported via boat.
Earlier, several horses were rescued from the island.
“Ang mga kabayo’y karugtong na ng aming buhay... Syempre, sila ang aming pinagkakakitaan,” Edwin Maguinao said.
Horses had been a help for residents of the volcano island, particularly tourist guides, since they were used by tourists visiting the crater of the Taal Volcano.
Jana Sevilla, senior rescue coordinator of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), believes that some 3,000 horses were in the area before the volcano started its eruptive activities. (With a report from Joseph Pedrajas)
READ MORE: Residents rescue more animals from Taal volcano island; PETA offers sanctuary to some