UP team sees 40-K COVID-19 cases in PH by end-June
Published Jun 11, 2020 12:00 am
By Analou De Vera
Confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country could climb to 40,000 by the end of this month, experts from the University of the Philippines said.
(Las Piñas City PIO / MANILA BULLETIN)
This projection is based on the "current trends" that they are seeing in the COVID-19 situation in the country, said Professor Guido David of the University of the Philippines' OCTA Research Team.
“For the whole Philippines, 40,000 cases by June 30. Ayun yung projection based on current trends,” said David during a media forum hosted by the Department of Health (DOH).
David said that the transmission rate or the “R(reproduction)-Naught” in the country is currently at 1.2. R-Naught is a mathematical term being used to measure the “transmission potential of a disease. It is the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of an infection,” he explained.
“Right now, ang projection lang namin ginamit namin yung R-Naught na 1.2 sa Philippines. Projection actually is nasa 40,000 cases by June 30. Inassume lang namin na 1.2. Kung bumaba yung R-Naught which is bumababa pa, kasi sa NCR (National Capital Region) less than 1 yung R-Naught, so kung iproject natin yun, mas kaunti naman ang cases,” he said.
Meanwhile, UP Professor Ranjit Rye said that community transmission of COVID-19 in the country is still evident since the reproduction rate is more than 1. Rye said that if the R-Naught is more than 1 “that means our management of the pandemic needs to be improved.”
“When the numbers above 1, there’s significant community transmission and if left alone without added quick response from the government, local government, citizens, private sector, it could lead to an outbreak,” said Rye.
Rye, meanwhile, said that the public should not go into panic as the numbers are “manageable.”
“This should not be a cause for panic because the numbers are still manageable, our recoveries are improving, mortalities are going down, and health capacity--because of ECQ (enhance community quarantine) has also gone up,” he said.
The UP expert also added that they are not recommending any loosening of quarantine restrictions “unless there is enough data to support changing the status now.”
“It’s predictable naman na once you open up, there will be spikes in the number, but so far our numbers have not escalated beyond what we consider is manageable,” said Rye.
“We all have to work together, coordinate our efforts. The goal is to bring the R-Naught to less than 1,” he added.
Rye said that the public should work together with the government and the private sector “to enforce social distancing, wearing of PPEs (personal protective equipment), and practice of proper hygiene.” The government should also scale up its testing and contact tracing strategy to curb the transmission of COVID-19, he said.
“If we don’t work together, if we’re not vigilant, we’re not alert, these numbers could escalate very easily because this virus--the transmission rate for this virus is quite high,” he said.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, meanwhile, said that projections should be interpreted with “caution.”
“We (should) interpret with caution also and when we use this number because as I've said, these models and projections may mga assumptions na ginagamit iyan ,” she said.
“Maraming factors ang pwedeng makaapekto dito sa pang-araw-araw na ginagawa natin ,” she added.
As of this writing, the Philippines has 23,732 confirmed COVID0-19 cases, including 4,895 recoveries and 1,027 deaths.
(Las Piñas City PIO / MANILA BULLETIN)
This projection is based on the "current trends" that they are seeing in the COVID-19 situation in the country, said Professor Guido David of the University of the Philippines' OCTA Research Team.
“For the whole Philippines, 40,000 cases by June 30. Ayun yung projection based on current trends,” said David during a media forum hosted by the Department of Health (DOH).
David said that the transmission rate or the “R(reproduction)-Naught” in the country is currently at 1.2. R-Naught is a mathematical term being used to measure the “transmission potential of a disease. It is the average number of secondary infections produced by a typical case of an infection,” he explained.
“Right now, ang projection lang namin ginamit namin yung R-Naught na 1.2 sa Philippines. Projection actually is nasa 40,000 cases by June 30. Inassume lang namin na 1.2. Kung bumaba yung R-Naught which is bumababa pa, kasi sa NCR (National Capital Region) less than 1 yung R-Naught, so kung iproject natin yun, mas kaunti naman ang cases,” he said.
Meanwhile, UP Professor Ranjit Rye said that community transmission of COVID-19 in the country is still evident since the reproduction rate is more than 1. Rye said that if the R-Naught is more than 1 “that means our management of the pandemic needs to be improved.”
“When the numbers above 1, there’s significant community transmission and if left alone without added quick response from the government, local government, citizens, private sector, it could lead to an outbreak,” said Rye.
Rye, meanwhile, said that the public should not go into panic as the numbers are “manageable.”
“This should not be a cause for panic because the numbers are still manageable, our recoveries are improving, mortalities are going down, and health capacity--because of ECQ (enhance community quarantine) has also gone up,” he said.
The UP expert also added that they are not recommending any loosening of quarantine restrictions “unless there is enough data to support changing the status now.”
“It’s predictable naman na once you open up, there will be spikes in the number, but so far our numbers have not escalated beyond what we consider is manageable,” said Rye.
“We all have to work together, coordinate our efforts. The goal is to bring the R-Naught to less than 1,” he added.
Rye said that the public should work together with the government and the private sector “to enforce social distancing, wearing of PPEs (personal protective equipment), and practice of proper hygiene.” The government should also scale up its testing and contact tracing strategy to curb the transmission of COVID-19, he said.
“If we don’t work together, if we’re not vigilant, we’re not alert, these numbers could escalate very easily because this virus--the transmission rate for this virus is quite high,” he said.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, meanwhile, said that projections should be interpreted with “caution.”
“We (should) interpret with caution also and when we use this number because as I've said, these models and projections may mga assumptions na ginagamit iyan ,” she said.
“Maraming factors ang pwedeng makaapekto dito sa pang-araw-araw na ginagawa natin ,” she added.
As of this writing, the Philippines has 23,732 confirmed COVID0-19 cases, including 4,895 recoveries and 1,027 deaths.