Metro Manila is now experiencing a “serious surge” of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, the latest report from OCTA Research group revealed.

In its report issued March 17, OCTA Research said the National Capital Region (NCR) logged 2,231 new infections on March 16, which represented a 78-percent increase in new cases compared to the previous week.

The independent research team also noted that the reproduction number in the metropolis jumped to 1.96, “its highest level since May 2020,” and its positivity rate rose to 12 percent.

The daily attack rate — or the percentage of a population that contracts the virus in a given period — in the metro was measured at 15.9 per 100,000 over the past seven days, “which classifies the region as high risk.”

Meanwhile, hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 patients in the metro was at 49 percent while intensive care unit occupancy was at 64 percent as of March 15.

The research group also said that COVID-19 testing in NCR increased by 18 percent to 24,300 tests per day.

4 areas have ‘very high’ attack rates

In its report, OCTA said that “very high” attack rates were observed in the cities of Pasay, Makati, and Navotas, and Santiago in Isabela recently.

“In Santiago, there was one reported case for the entire week of March 3 to 9, but this increased to 244 for the week of March 10 to 16,” the report stated.

On the other hand, OCTA said hospital occupancy in Quezon City, Makati, and Muntinlupa have exceeded 70 percent.

“As the NCR deals with a Covid-19 surge, we need to assess the effects of efforts by the local governments in dealing with the surge in their respective cities,” researchers said, noting that localized lockdowns in Pasay and Navotas have helped reduce the reproduction number from 2.4 to 1.8.

“While this is still above one, this gives us confidence that the localized lockdowns work to some extent. Together with reduced mobility, curfews, stricter implementation of health protocols and city ordinances, this can help reduce the reproduction number in NCR to more manageable levels,” they added.

OCTA updates projections

The OCTA team has lowered its projections of new cases in NCR for the end of March after taking into account the interventions imposed by local government units (LGUs) such as localized lockdowns, curfews, and stricter implementation of health protocols.

“The result is that the more optimistic scenario could reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases by the end of March to less than 4,000, compared with 7,500 if there are no changes,” OCTA said.

“By mid-April, the model that takes into consideration the city ordinances could lead to 6,000 new cases, compared to 16,000 if current trends continue,” they added.

The group is also looking into the possibility that the combined efforts of the local governments and the citizens will further reduce the transmission rate and lower the reproduction number in NCR.

“If this happens, we will hopefully see fewer Covid-19 daily cases in the NCR,” experts said.

OCTA said localized lockdowns may work against “variant-driven surges” but the group stressed that it will be more effective if combined with expanded testing, contact tracing and supported isolation. 

“Localized lockdowns are also more effective when communities support them. Hence, LGUs organizing lockdowns must ensure that they are humane and protective of individual rights, and that the communities affected must be provided food, water and other minimum basic needs,” they said.