By Genalyn Kabiling President Duterte has raised concerns about the potential death toll from the coronavirus pandemic if he would keep, lift, or modify the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Luzon. President Rodrigo Roa Duterte holds a meeting with members of the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) at the Malago Clubhouse in Malacañang on April 20, 2020. ACE MORANDANTE/PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO/ MANILA BULLETIN The President posed several questions about the potential consequences on the extension or partial lifting of the Luzon-wide quarantine during his meeting with top government officials and health experts last Monday. The Luzon-wide quarantine, which forced people to stay at home, shut down malls and other businesses, suspended public transport to contain the coronavirus outbreak, is set to expire this April 30. "How many people will die if ECQ is lifted, modified or retained?" Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque said during a Palace press briefing Tuesday, quoting the President during the meeting last Monday. "Is there is a possibility of a second wave of COVID if ECQ is relaxed or lifted? If people are allowed to go out of their homes, is there a danger for the disease to spike anew or is this just really round one of COVID-19?” he asked. According to Roque, Duterte was also interested to find out about the impact of lifting the Luzon-wide quarantine on sectors of society. "If he lifts ECQ, what will happen to certain kinds of people? What good will lifting or relaxing ECQ do to certain sectors of society?” Roque said, relaying the President's concerns during Monday's meeting with experts. So far, the President has not decided on the next course of action and has directed a government task force to further study the options beyond April 30. Roque said the President's options include to "maintain/extend" the ECQ or implement a "modified quarantine” at the provincial, municipality and barangay levels depending on the level of coronavirus cases. No one recommended a “total lockdown” during the President’s meeting with the officials. "Walang desisyon ang Presidente kung paano mangyayari pagdating ng April 30 (The President has no decision yet on what will happen on April 30)," he said. "The President will decide for himself. Pero doon sa konsultasyon po, walang nagrekumenda ng total lockdown. Ang naging rekumendasyon lamang, i-maintain, i-relax o i-lift ang ECQ sa iba’t ibang lugar depende nga sa kaso ng COVID-19 (In the consultation, no one recommended a total lockdown. The recommendation included to maintain, relax or lift ECQ in places depending on the COVID-19 cases),” he added. The Department of Health and the National Economic and Development Authority have advised the President to consider "minimum health preparations," cases of coronavirus in certain places, and number of people affected before deciding if the quarantine will be extended or modified. Roque said if the ECQ is maintained in Luzon, the cases of coronavirus will certainly drop. "Ang tanong, kaya ba natin na paantayin ang mga kababayan na ganito katagal, kaya ba natin silang buhayin? Kaya ang binabalanse ay sa pagitan ng karapatan mabuhay at karapatang magkaroon ng livelihood (The question is can we ask our people to wait a little more, can we afford to take care of them. That's why we must balance the right to live and the right to have a livelihood)," he said. In the meeting, Roque said former Health Secretary Janette Garin recommended maintaining ECQ in places with a high number of coronavirus cases. She also suggested that the relief aid being given by the government should go directly to the communities affected by the pandemic. He said former Health Secretary Jaime Galvez Tan proposed a comprehensive communication plan for coronavirus crisis as well as a research-based surveillance program for places with infections. Mahar Lagmay of UP Resilience Institute also said there should be "gradual relaxation of ECQ" to balance public health and economic activity. Lagmay shared with the media a presentation on "Visualizing the COVID-19 threat for anticipatory planning" prepared by the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response team. In the report, Lagmay cited that the ECQ has been effective in curbing the spread of the coronavirus. He cautioned that lifting the ECQ on April 30 might only lead to an increase in coronavirus cases. "Kung itutuloy natin ito, bababa ito hanggang tuluyang mawala pero hindi naman puwede ganoon kasi kailangan nating balansehin ang kalusugan at ang ating ekonomiya. Ayaw naman natin na magutom ang tao. Kaya kailangan may patakbo sa ekonomiya na maganda (If we maintain it, the cases will fall until it is gone, but we cannot do that because we must balance public health and our economy. We don't want people to starve. There should be good economic activity)," he said. At present, Roque said Metro Manila, CALABARZON, parts of Bulacan, Cebu City and Davao are among the places with high number of coronavirus cases. "I would say that there was almost as consensus na ang ECQ eh hindi naman dapat ipatupad sa buong Luzon. Ito po ay by way of recommendation, na depende sa dami ng kaso, eh pupuwede nga pong as is, i-relax or i-lift ang ECQ, “ he said. Apart from Garin, Tan and Lagmay, other officials present in the President’s meeting were Senate President Vicente Sotto III, Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano, former Health secretaries Esperanza Cabral, health experts Dr. Susan Mercado and Dr. Anthony Leachon. 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