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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider COVID-19 reproduction rate in Metro Manila 'unlikely' to go down to 1 in 2 weeks - OCTA

COVID-19 reproduction rate in Metro Manila 'unlikely' to go down to 1 in 2 weeks - OCTA

Published Mar 23, 2021 12:37 pm

It is unlikely for the COVID reproduction rate (R0) in Metro Manila to go down to one in a span of two weeks, according to an expert from the OCTA Research Group.

Passers-by walk in front of a tarpaulin with images of frontliners wearing face mask at Eastwood city in Pasig on Saturday, Feb.6, 2021. (Photo by Jansen Romero / MANILA BULLETIN)
(Jansen Romero / MANILA BULLETIN)

In an interview with CNN Philippines on Tuesday (March 23), OCTA Research fellow Dr. David Guido said the closest or “most optimistic” reduction in R0 that can be achieved during the implementation of stricter measures within the National Capital Region Plus (NCR+) bubble is between 1.5 and 1.6.

“It’s unlikely to get it below that within two weeks,” David said.

“I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it seems unlikely, so if we can get it down to 1.5 to 1.6, that would actually be a big deal and I would actually be very happy to see that kind of reduction in the reproduction number,” he added.

According to David, the National Capital Region’s R0 is about 2.1.

To be able to reduce the number of cases in NCR, the R0 must go down to 1, which he reiterated “cannot happen in two weeks.”

“The last time we had MECQ (Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine), it took us 28 days to reduce the reproduction number from about 1.7 to less than 1,” he said.

David said it will take about four weeks before the country’s capital region can start having a decrease in cases, “basing on history.”

He urged the public not to “underestimate” the virus.

“It has mutated. It’s more infectious. And some of our strategies before that worked, may no longer be applicable or may have to be calibrated,” he said.

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