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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider BSP sees below 2% inflation rate ahead

BSP sees below 2% inflation rate ahead

Published Apr 25, 2020 12:00 am
By LEE C. CHIPONGIAN Inflation will likely drop to below two percent in the third quarter as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown, and then again by the first quarter of 2021 depending on how long the containment measures will be extended to curb the rise of outbreak cases, according to officials of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). BSP Director for the Department of Economic Research, Dennis D. Lapid, in a videoconference Friday said that based on their latest forecast path, they see inflation decelerating below the two-four percent target in the third quarter this year and in the first quarter 2021 before moving back up within the target range. “By the second quarter 2021, we see inflation gradually picking up towards the target. But this outlook has a lot of uncertainties embedded in it because there’s a lot of different factors at play. The assessment is that the overall risks seems to be weighted towards the downside,” said Lapid. Lapid noted that key factors to “push down inflation for this year and in 2021 have to do with a deeper slowdown in global economic activity, and also weaker prospect for domestic economic activity” as an impact of longer containment or lockdown measures. BSP Assistant Governor Iluminada T. Sicat, who presented the BSP’s latest inflation quarterly report, said that for now their outlook after the April 16 off-cycle rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) is still an inflation forecast of 2.2 percent for this year and 2.4 percent for 2021. The BSP has cut policy rates by a cumulative 125 bps.
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