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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider BSP forecasts Inflation easing to 2% in March as fuel costs ebb

BSP forecasts Inflation easing to 2% in March as fuel costs ebb

Published Mar 31, 2020 12:00 am
By Lee C. Chipongian The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasts an inflation rate of as low as two percent flat for the month of March, lower than 2.6 percent in February due to plunging fuel prices. The BSP Department of Economic Research (DER) released a March inflation forecast range of two percent to 2.8 percent on Tuesday. It said the “sharp decline in the prices of petroleum products due to the significant fall in global crude oil prices contributed to the downward price pressures”. The DER said some food items have stable prices in March, partly due to price controls implemented by the government amid a month-long Luzon-wide and later nationwide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to contain the spread of the deadly coronavirus COVID-19. “The prices of selected food products remained broadly stable in March due to adequate supply and favorable weather conditions along with the price freeze imposed on basic necessities by the Department of Trade and Industry and the Department of Agriculture,” the DER said. Electricity rates were “slightly” higher in March, the BSP also noted. The BSP said it will implement appropriate policies as they monitor prices and to make sure that there is price stability in support of a “balanced and sustainable economic growth.” The BSP’s latest average-year inflation forecast is 2.2 percent for this year and 2.4 percent for 2021. The projection was adjusted lower due to the significant drop in global crude oil prices, and the impact of COVID-19 on global and domestic growth. “The BSP forecasts tamer inflation this year and next,” said BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno yesterday (Tuesday). “The main driver for the downward adjustment is the collapse of world crude oil prices. Dubai crude oil price is now at its 18-year low of $22.51/bbl, down from its recent peak of $85.00/bbl in 2018,” said Diokno. The BSP said the global crude oil prices are consistent with latest futures market data and the latest assessment by international energy agencies on the outlook for the global oil market. It said that the latest futures prices incorporate the sharp drop in oil prices due to expectations of lower world demand and the consequences of the fallout between Saudi Arabia and Russia. As for the impact of ECQ on inflation, the BSP said the COVID-19 outbreak is seen as having a negative impact on global manufacturing and trade, and the ongoing health and quarantine measures to contain it could likely dampen domestic demand, thus contributing to reduced inflation pressures in the coming months. “Additionally, the sharp decline in global commodity prices, particularly crude oil, on market concerns over a potential slowdown in global economic activity, can further temper inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the National Government has implemented a price freeze for basic commodities, several food items, and medicines, in line with the declaration of a state of calamity over the entire Philippines,” the BSP said.
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