By Lee C. Chipongian The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has lowered its Philippine growth forecast to 4.5 percent this year from a previous 6.2 percent projection amid the COVID-19 pandemic. AMRO’s latest April 2020 projections indicated a range of four to five percent with an average point of 4.5 percent, and for 2021, it is 6.4 percent to seven percent which could settle at 6.7 percent. Next year’s GDP growth projection is higher than the previous 6.6 percent. AMRO on Tuesday also released its ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO 2020) report, and it reduced the ASEAN+3 growth projection to just two percent in 2020 and then improve to 5.5 percent in 2021. The previous forecasts were 4.2 percent this year and five percent in 2021. “Structural transformations are now more important than ever for the region to regain its former dynamism and to sustain rapid growth,” the report said. Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO’s chief economist, said 2019 was a "highly eventful year, marked by the escalating US-China trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, domestic political unrest, market sell-offs, and extreme weather conditions." “Just as we were closing the 2019 chapter on a brighter note with the conclusion of the US-China Phase One trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East flared up, driving up oil prices. No sooner had this subsided, the ‘black swan’ COVID- 19 virus broke out in China and turned into a global pandemic,” said Khor. Based on the AREO report, the regional outlook needs to be assessed constantly due to the “rapidly evolving economic and financial market fallout from the fast-spreading pandemic.” In the meantime, while regional outlook is expected to decelerate, AMRO expects recessions in US and Europe while China’s GDP will be weaker but could still grow at 3.5 percent this year. “The ASEAN countries are experiencing a surge in the COVID- 19 infection and governments have taken very strict measures— including national lockdowns—to contain the outbreak, and adopted large stimulus packages to support their economies. Nonetheless, the ASEAN economies are expected to weaken sharply and grow at an average of 1.1 percent in 2020, before recovering to 5.2 percent in 2021,” according to the report.