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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PAGASA issues El Niño Watch; likelihood of El Niño development increases

PAGASA issues El Niño Watch; likelihood of El Niño development increases

Published Mar 23, 2023 07:15 am
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued on Thursday, March 23, an El Niño Watch indicating an increased chance for El Niño conditions to develop in the third quarter of 2023. PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said an El Niño Watch was issued, as recent climate conditions have become more favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months, with a probability of 55 percent. Citing recent conditions and model forecasts, Solis said the El Niño may develop in the July-August-September 2023 season and persist until 2024. The last El Niño event was in 2018-2019. PAGASA has been continuously monitoring the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific since it issued its final La Niña advisory on March 10. The ENSO-neutral condition, a climate phase where neither La Niña nor El Niño persists, is currently in place and is expected to last from March to June this year. El Niño, or warm phase of ENSO, is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

PAGASA warns of El Niño’s possible ‘early’ impacts

 According to Solis, the developing El Niño usually triggers the strengthening of the southwest monsoon, because even before the dry conditions, some parts of the country, particularly the western parts, may experience “above-normal” rainfall. She cited as an example storm Ondoy, which brought heavy rains to Metro Manila and neighboring areas during the pre-development of El Niño in 2009. Based on the latest analysis, Solis said El Niño may also have an early impact on rainfall in the Visayas and Mindanao, as these regions may experience “below-normal” rainfall in the coming months. Although there are strong tropical cyclones that may develop, some of them may recurve and no longer enter the country’s area of responsibility, Solis also said. But if the track goes inland, some of these storms are likely to be severe in terms of wind or rainfall, she added. El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts, such as dry spells and droughts, in some areas of the country, PAGASA said. It advised all concerned government agencies and the general public to keep track of official updates and be cautious against the imminent effects of El Niño.

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