The prolonged La Niña condition that brought “above-normal” rainfall to some parts of the country since late 2020 has officially ended, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Tuesday, March 14.

“Most of the climate models predict that the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO-neutral is favored from March through June this year with an increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño or warm phase thereafter,” PAGASA said in its final La Niña advisory.

ENSO-neutral condition is a climate phase where neither La Niña nor El Niño persists.

“Although La Niña has already ended, its lag effect may still influence the probability of above-normal rainfall conditions in the coming months, potentially leading to adverse impacts, such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in some highly vulnerable areas,” PAGASA said.

Residents walk along a flooded street as they head home after they were stranded overnight in Kawit, Cavite, on October 30, 2022, a day after tropical cyclone Paeng hit the country. (ALI VICOY / MANILA BULLETIN)

Based on the PAGASA’s rainfall forecast for March, “near-to-above normal” rainfall is likely in most parts of the country, except in the western parts of Luzon, which may receive “below normal” rainfall.

By April, Luzon may experience below-to-near normal rainfall, while Visayas and Mindanao may have near-to-above normal rainfall.

PAGASA said rainfall conditions all over the country will be “near-normal” by May.

La Niña, or the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and characterized by above-normal rainfall, is responsible for the excessive rainfall in some parts of the country that triggered floods and landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.

Meanwhile, El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative effects, such as dry spells and droughts, in some areas of the country.