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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider OCTA fellow projects less than 500 daily Covid-19 cases in PH by end-November

OCTA fellow projects less than 500 daily Covid-19 cases in PH by end-November

Published Nov 7, 2022 01:33 pm

(MANILA BULLETIN FILE PHOTO)

The daily Covid-19 cases in the Philippines may drop to 500 by the end of November, according to OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David.

In a public briefing on Monday, Nov. 7, David said the average number of daily cases of Covid-19 in the country dropped to 907 cases over the past week, which translates into a growth rate of negative (-) 30 percent.

He also noted that the seven-day average of cases in Metro Manila dropped to 210 cases per day in the past week, which is likely to be the lowest since the May 2022 elections.

The current average daily number of Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila translates to a growth rate of -38 percent.

“Ibig sabihin mukhang mabilis bumaba yung bilang ng kaso (This means that the number of cases seems to decrease rapidly),” David said.

Metro Manila’s Covid-19 reproduction number—or the average number of secondary infections—also dropped to 0.68.

A reproduction number of less than 1 shows a decrease in infections.

David added that healthcare utilization for Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila remained low at 28 percent.

He also pointed out that Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) dropped to 1.46 per 100,000, which is considered “low.”

ADAR or incidence rate refers to the number of new daily cases per 100,000 population.

“Dahil sa mga numero na ito, nakikita natin na patuloy na bababa ang bilang ng kaso. We’re hoping maganda-ganda ang magiging holidays wala masyadong infections (Because of these numbers, we see that the number of cases will continue to decrease. We're hoping the holidays will be wonderful where there won't be too many infections,” David said.

“Baka by end of November, less than 500 cases na lang sa buong Pilipinas at baka nasa 100 cases na lang tayo sa Metro Manila kung magpatuloy ang trend na ito. Confident ako na magpapatuloy ang trend kasi natuto na tayong protektahan ang sarili natin, especially yung may comorbidities at yung elderly population (Maybe by the end of November there will be less than 500 cases in the whole Philippines and maybe we will only have 100 cases in Metro Manila if this trend continues. I am confident that the trend will continue because we have learned to protect ourselves, especially those with comorbidities and the elderly population),” he added.

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