PAGASA in 2023: Impact-based forecasting, early warning system

Yearender


The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it continues to engage in various initiatives to improve the delivery of its services.
During a year-end thanksgiving event for its media partners on Dec. 11, PAGASA officials presented the agency’s accomplishment report for 2023.


Among the highlights of its accomplishments was its use of the impact-based forecasting and early warning system, which prioritizes explaining “what the weather will do” instead of “what the weather will be.”


PAGASA said the system is “proactive” and “progressive,” to help deliver accurate interpretations of the details and the necessary actions.


“With our coordinated efforts, we can fine-tune and formulate the appropriate procedures and responses to different forecast and warning scenarios, especially for possible disastrous events,” PAGASA Administrator Dr. Nathaniel Servando said.

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AS OF DECEMBER 2023, PAGASA has 19 existing C & S Band Doppler Weather Radars.


“Not only do we seek to avoid a case of insufficient warnings but also over-warning, which could result in productivity loss by canceling certain socio-economic activities beyond what needs to be,” Servando added.
 

Forums, training


PAGASA also conducted monthly forums and yearly seminar workshops, as well as apprenticeships for the media.


“It is refreshing to have these talents bring science and technology into an entertaining yet educational format, making weather news more interesting for the viewing public,” said Servando.


PAGASA, through Zoom and Facebook Live, administered 12 Climate Outlook Forums (COF), five forums on El Niño, and four climate workshops.


“These forums aimed to help PAGASA's stakeholders make wise decisions in agriculture, water resource management, public health safety, and disaster risk reduction management,” PAGASA said.

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DOST-PAGASA Planetarium in Molugan


Expansion of flood warning system


PAGASA expanded its operations and coverage in providing flood warning and information by installing the Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS) in floodprone places in the rural areas.


As of December 2023, there are 17 FFWS, with four new systems in Aklan, Mindanao, Agusan, and Abulog. Additionally, two ongoing FFWS are being established in Agus and Ilog-Hilabangan.


“For the third quarter of 2023, the agency achieved a 97.62 percent timely issuance of flood warnings within 15 minutes of the scheduled time against the 96 percent target,” said PAGASA.


New planetarium  in Misamis Oriental


PAGASA also revealed that it has a newly constructed planetarium located in Molugan, El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental, which will be the first planetarium in Mindanao.
The planetarium is a 755-meter facility with a chamber and an astronomical observatory where a dome-shaped screen is available to showcase planets, galaxies, and other astronomical matters.


The planetarium is set to operate in February 2024, said PAGASA.
 

Partnerships and collaborations


In September, PAGASA launched the project kickoff and stakeholder engagement workshop for the Green-Climate Fund Multi-Hazard Impact-Based Forecasting and Early Warning System (MH-IBF-EWS) in partnership with the government of the City of Legazpi, Albay.


Moreover, PAGASA collaborated with the World Bank Group to conduct the CMIP6 Climate and Data Workshop, attended by the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, the Hydrometeorology Division, and the members of the Department of Environmental and Natural Resources-National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (DENR-NAMRIA).
 

Awards and recognition


PAGASA received three recognitions from the Career Executive Service Board (CESB) on December 6: Outstanding Human Resource Partner for 2022; 2023 Outstanding Institutional Partner for Learning; and 2023 HR ADVOCATE, awarded to Chief Admin Division Arceli Arroyo.


Moreover, PAGASA was awarded as one of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) Outstanding Stakeholders on Oct. 27; GADtimpala BRONZE for Outstanding Gender-Responsive Agency; and GADtimpala SILVER for the Exemplary GAD Focal Point System (GADtimpala AlaGAD) on Aug. 14.


Meanwhile, PAGASA also conducted research and developmental programs and published papers about sub-seasonal rainfall, tropical cyclones, and climate change.


Moreover, PAGASA said 83 field weather stations had been established in the country, while the completion of six more stations is targeted for 2024 in Quirino, Apayao, La Union, Panglao, Dipolog, and Biliran.


Deputy Administrator for Operations and Services Dr. Bonifacio G. Pauelas, for his part, shared how the media is critical to PAGASA’s way of conveying information. “All the same, we will continue to strive for excellence in our public service delivery,” he said.


“I, for one, thank the media for questioning and validating what we do here in PAGASA to prevent information singularity as a cross-check if we are doing the right thing and are on the correct path,” Pauelas said. “That is the most important role of the media at this time, I believe,” he added.