As Filipinos brace for the impact of the El Niño phenomenon next year, Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. took the time to explain the difference between dry spell and drought that are expected to hit most of the country’s 82 provinces.

The official on Tuesday, Dec. 19, discussed the meteorological definition of these two conditions.

“If the rainfall is 21 to 60 percent below normal, if there are three consecutive months of that, then it will be called dry spell. If it is drought, five consecutive months,” he said.

He further explained that if the rainfall is “way below normal at more than 60 percent,” then dry spell can be declared if there are two consecutive months of that and drought if there are three consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall.

“The biggest difference between the two is just the percentage but the preparation should be the same,” the official, who will also co-chair the reactivated El Niño Task Force, stressed.

The DOST chief revealed that 63 provinces will possibly experience drought conditions and 12 provinces would experience dry spell condition.

Solidum, however, brought good news to provinces that won’t be affected by either drought or dry spell. These are the Caraga Administrative Region (CARAGA) and some parts of Davao region on the eastern side of Mindanao.

“All the rest are most drought or dry spell,” he lamented.

Citing data from the DOST-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitoring and assessment of the latest information provided by the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Demographic and Atmospheric Administration, the DOST chief said that “strong" El Niño is expected through December to January 2024.

He also noted that “majority of the global climate model” suggests that El Niño would persist from March to May 2024, though he revised an earlier forecast and said that the peak of El Niño would be felt in April 2024 instead of May.

“So, essentially the effects of El Niño will still be covering the first and second quarter of 2024, but then the peak of El Niño in terms of drought will be April of 2024,” he added.

Last week, Solidum said that the forecasted temperature next year will be from 9.4 degrees to 14.8 degrees, while “the maximum temperature in Northern Luzon around April or May can be up to 41 degrees centigrade and that would be the actual temperature.”

But he stressed that the heat index—the measure of how hot it actually feels when humidity is factored in—could bring up the temperature by five to 15 more degrees.

In Metro Manila, the DOST official said the forecast is 38.3 degrees, while lowland Luzon can be as high as 39.9 degrees. Mindanao by April would experience 39.5 degrees in temperature.