The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Sunday, Dec. 17 said tropical depression Kabayan may make landfall along the coast of Surigao del Sur or Davao Oriental on Sunday evening or early Monday morning, Dec. 18.

In its 11 a.m. tropical cyclone bulletin, PAGASA estimated the location of Kabayan 440 kilometers east of Davao City, Davao del Sur.

It has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 70 kilometers per hour as it moves slowly north-northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 

PAGASA hoisted Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 in Visayas particularly in the southern portion of Samar (Basey, Santa Rita, Marabut, Talalora, Villareal, Pinabacdao), the southern portion of Eastern Samar (Maydolong, City of Borongan, Quinapondan, Guiuan, Lawaan, Balangiga, Llorente, Giporlos, Salcedo, Balangkayan, General Macarthur, Hernani, Mercedes), Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, and Camotes Islands.

Meanwhile, Mindanao areas under TCWS No. 1 were Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, the northern portion of Davao Oriental (Cateel, Boston, Baganga), the northern portion of Davao de Oro (Monkayo, Laak), Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and the northern portion of Bukidnon (Impasug-Ong, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Sumilao, Libona, Baungon, Cabanglasan, City of Malaybalay). 
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"There will be minimal to minor threat to life and property⁣⁣, however this is not a reason to not be wary of the threats that it may still bring," said PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Chris Perez.

⁣⁣Rainfall outlook

Intense rainfall of 100-200 millimeters (mm) will be felt in Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Southern Leyte, while heavy rainfall of 50-100 mm will be experienced in the Eastern Visayas, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Caraga. 
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PAGASA warned the public of threats from landslides and flash floods in these areas.

⁣⁣"Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days," it said.

Moreover, Perez reminded the public to be vigilant against the threats of wind and rains not only in areas where it will make landfall but also in places where Signal No. 1 is hoisted. 

Track forecast

After its landfall, Kabayan may cross the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and emerge over Bohol Sea or Sulu Sea on Monday morning or afternoon.

“Due to frictional effects associated with landfall, Kabayan is forecast to weaken over land and the possibility of being downgraded into a low pressure area while over land or after emerging over the sea is not ruled out. Although in such a case, re-development may still occur over the Sulu Sea,” PAGASA said.

“For the remainder of tomorrow and into early morning of Tuesday (Dec. 19), Kabayan will move across the Sulu Sea south of Cuyo Islands. The tropical cyclone is forecast to make another landfall over central or southern Palawan as a tropical depression by Tuesday morning, then emerge over the Philippine Sea by noon or early afternoon of the same day. Afterwards, Kabayan may pass near or over Kalayaan Islands in the West Philippine Sea,” it added.