The Department of Energy (DOE) is counting on the capacity contribution of greenfield solar plants that are coming on commercial stream during the summer months, primarily to plug capacity gap arising from the de-rated generation of the hydro plants due to the incursion of El Niño spell.

In a briefing to the media, Irma C. Exconde, director of the DOE’s Electric Power Industry Management Bureau (EPIMB) indicated that there will be roughly 700 megawatts (MW) of solar projects coming on-line next year, hence, that will help shore up power supply especially in next year’s dry months.

These facilities include the Cayanga solar power plant in Bugallon, Pangasinan; as well as the solar farms in Laoag, Subic, Santo Domingo (in Pangasinan), Raslag in Pampanga, Lal-lo in Cagayan, Lumbangan in Batangas; as well as the Sapang Balen solar project in Pampanga.

Exconde conveyed “we have been monitoring hydro power plants this 2023 because of the preparation for El Niño and we have assumed 70% deration of (the) hydro power plants -- particularly the large ones in Luzon and Mindanao -- because in Visayas we don’t have very [big] hydro power plants.”

She qualified that extent of reduction in generation had been reckoned on the hydro plants’ dependable capacities – so for example, if that will be for 1,000 megawatts, then the capacity availability during El Niño, will just be roughly 30%.

Despite downscaled output from the hydro facilities that will likely be aggravated by the El Niño weather pattern, Exconde noted the DOE is confident that grid supply will still not be as strained during the summer season.

“What we are saying even with these assumptions, we’re still looking at without potential red or yellow alert because of the power plants coming in 2024. Particularly, there are several solar power plants coming in and these will be favorable under an El Niño scenario,” she said.

In terms of electricity demand, Exconde narrated that in the last El Nino season in 2010, the growth rate was at 10.5%; then it was at heftier 15.3% for the Visayas grid.

For 2024 projection, she stated that anticipated demand growth for Luzon (as anchored on 2023 figures) would be 10.9%; then 17.6% for Visayas grid; and Mindanao will likely log 17.6% demand hike.

Energy Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla emphasized that with the challenges confronting the country’s power system during El Niño, “we will need to use all sources of power that are available to us during this period.”

He pointed out the El Nino mayhem might stretch until second quarter next year, thus, that will also straddle the critical summer months – based on the latest advisory of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

“Especially towards the second quarter and the rest of second quarter of 2024, we are therefore making sure that all the non-hydro plants are working at their best. This includes making sure that the natural gas plants which will be available in 2024 are made use of and all of our coal-fired power plants are also working well,” the energy chief stressed.

The major hydro plants in Luzon – primarily the Angat and Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan (CBK) facilities – are currently not being operated and have been undergoing regular maintenance to prepare for their more critical function of providing potable water as well as for the needs for irrigation of the agriculture sector even during the El Nino-laden period.

Lotilla highlighted that during El Niño years, weather temperatures typically rise by about 1.0 to 2.0 degrees – and that could affect the electricity usage pattern of the consumers, especially for air-conditioning systems, that in turn will also be triggering overall spike in the country’s electricity demand.

In line with that, the DOE chief is reiterating his plea for consumers to embrace energy efficiency and conservation so the country’s available supply would not reach breaking point within the El Nino-aggravated summer cycle.