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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Fewer cyclones may affect PH due to El Niño — PAGASA

Fewer cyclones may affect PH due to El Niño — PAGASA

Published Nov 30, 2023 06:39 am

The frequency of tropical cyclones forming in or passing through the country's area of responsibility is one of the "greatest" effects of the El Niño phenomenon, said an expert of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Thursday, Nov. 30.

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(PAGASA)


“Ito ang isa sa pinakaepekto ng El Niño dahil 'yung bagyo ay more in the east nabubuo so kapag malayo, hindi na umaabot sa Philippine area of responsibility at mayroong reduction sa frequency na naglalandfall or cross sa PAR (This is one of the most significant effect of El Niño as the cyclone forms more in the east so if it is far, it will no longer reach the Philippine area of responsibility and there is a reduction in the frequency of those cyclones landfalling or crossing the Philippine area of responsibility)," PAGASA weather specialist Joey Figuracion said.

He explained that the presence of El Niño contributes to a “more humid" weather than usual and "occasional" cloud formation, which influences the frequency of cyclones in the country.

He also said that tropical cyclones influence the amount of rainfall that the country may receive in the coming months.

"Ang bagyo ay isang driver ng tubig ulan so kung may reduction sa bagyo ay may reduction din sa tubig ulan dahil 70 percent ng tubig ulan ay mula sa bagyo (Tropical cyclone is a driver of rainfall so if there is reduction in the occurrence of tropical cyclones, there is also a reduction in the amount of rainfall as 70 percent of rain water comes from the tropical cyclones)," he added.

Meanwhile, three provinces—Batangas, Cavite, and Oriental Mindoro may experience drought—a condition when there is a below-normal rainfall condition (41 to 80 percent)  in five consecutive months or a way-below normal rainfall condition (up to 40 percent) in two consecutive months.

PAGASA confirmed in a climate outlook forum on Nov. 22 that the El Niño has intensified from “moderate” to “strong” event.

This means that the effect of El Niño on the country may be more severe and last longer.

Read: https://mb.com.ph/2023/11/22/20-luzon-areas-may-experience-dry-spell-by-end-2023-pagasa-1

However, Figuracion said the country may still expect one to two tropical cyclones in December.

Related story: https://mb.com.ph/2023/11/1/ph-may-have-1-or-2-tropical-cyclones-in-november-pagasa

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PAGASA tropical cyclone El Niño
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