The population of the Philippines is expected to hit 112 million before the end of this year based on the projected population growth rate using the census result in 2020, the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) said on Saturday, Nov. 25.
The population forecast by the end of 2023 at 112 million by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is lower than the projected 115 million earlier stated by the CPD.
The CPD based its population forecast on the 1.6 million annual population growth rate but in the PSA forecast, it took into account the drop in the number of births and high mortality rates in 2021 and 2022.
The impact on the population growth for 2021 and 2022 was a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The Commission on Population and Development (CPD) has confirmed that, based on the initial 2020 census-based population projections of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the country’s population is projected at 112 million in 2023. This is lower than CPD’s earlier projection of 115 million,” the statement read.
“CPD thus acknowledges that the projected population it earlier stated was an overestimate,” it added.
Currently, the Philippines ranked 13th in the world in terms of population and 7th in the Asia-Pacific region.
Decline in growth rate
CPD Executive Director Lolito Tacordon said the Philippine's population growth rate actually declined in the past few years.
From around three percent every year in the past, he said the country’s growth rate is now only at 1.6 percent based on the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey.
The same survey stated that the average children per family in the country is now only at two.
“So the fertility level among women in the Philippines is causing a slow population growth rate,” said Tacordon.
Why PH Population and Development Plan is important
On Nov. 14, President Marcos approved the Philippine Population and Development Plan of Action or PPD-POA 2023-2028 through the Memorandum Circular No. 40.
Tacordon said the approval of such measures is important in order for the policy-makers to strategize and maximize the use of the Philippines’ human resources.
Currently, 8.5 percent of Philippine population is composed of senior citizens and the majority of the country’s population is classified as working age population, or the 15 to 64 age range.
While the Philippines cannot still be classified as having an ageing population in the next few years, Tacordon said it is essential for the government to plan well to anticipate it and plan well for the future, especially with the recent survey which revealed that Filipino families prefer to have a maximum of two children.
“The goal of the Philippine Population and Development Plan is to optimize our demographic opportunities and at the same time, address key population challenges,” said Tacordon.
Demographic opportunities, according to Tacordon, includes the change of age structure wherein the working age population in the country is now dominant compared to the dependent age population which is at 0-14 age range.
“What does this mean? If the government twould be successful in building its human resources that focuses on working age population, there is a big chance that we could accelerate our economic development,” said Tacordon,
It is because the dominant age structure is now contributing to economic growth compared to those who are dependent on the assistance from the government, according to Tacordon.
At the household level, he said having an average of two children per family means that there would be more investment on education and other well-being needs for every Filipino family.
On the other hand, Tacordon said the Philippine Population and Development Plan will also effectively address population-related challenges, especially teenage pregnancy.