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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider The Stock Market devider BSKE, Undas trading break to lull PSEi this week

BSKE, Undas trading break to lull PSEi this week

Published Oct 29, 2023 05:30 pm

The local market is expected to draw fewer market participants this week amid the three-day trading break on Oct. 30 for the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections (BSKE) 2023, and Undas season on Nov. 1 and 2. 

According to online brokerage firm 2TradeAsia, the drop in the local stock market, which closed at 5,961.99 on Friday, may have been an "after effect of a very short trading week," with participation to resume after the break. 

Upon resumption of trading, the firm noted that the stock market may see continued negative outcomes due to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) off-cycle rate hike last Oct. 26, which "roughly translates to elevated inflation expectations up to at least the first half of 2024." 

Further announcements from the Federal Reserve concerning rate hikes in the US may also dampen investor sentiments. 

"While the 'higher for longer' rhetoric on rates is set to remain, it will be interesting how growth will be looked at by the Fed in 2024 given already strong manifestation of tightening in certain sectors (i.e. US housing and real estate dip, disappointing tech earnings), despite brisk third quarter GDP figures in the US earlier this week," the firm speculated. 

However, 2TradeAsia said the fall this week may "provide a window for accumulation, given very light volumes behind this downtrend, that may be indicative of low staying power in this zone." 

Meanwhile, Philstocks Financial Research Manager Japhet Tantiangco said the next trading week may see the market “retesting the 6,000 level after falling below last week.”

“With already two consecutive weeks of decline, we may see bargain hunting next week. However, a strong rally may not yet be seen due to the downside risks that are still in play," he said. 

"With the BSP now expecting inflation to take longer before falling within the two to four percent target, concerns that the high policy rates will be kept for a while, or possibly even raised further may weigh on market sentiment," added Tantiangco.

He also noted that a “rise in the US long term treasury yields and a worsening of the Israel-Hamas war may pull the market lower, while a decline in the yields and a de-escalation is seen to boost sentiment.”

For the two remaining trading days this week, 2TradeAsia advises investors to "keep to select sectors and corporate stories for now, given lack of fanfare around macro indicators," with upcoming earnings reports hopefully providing "meaningful and tradeable information for the medium-term, especially if cash flows are secured through 2024."

"Usual plays in banking, gaming, and fourth quarter seasonal plays are underscored, and stocks with high dividend yields should remain popular as potential bond proxies," it added.

Tantiangco added that investors can expect to watch out for the third quarter corporate earnings as well as the upcoming S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI for clues.

 

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