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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider La Niña continues to weaken, but 'above-normal' rainfall still likely

La Niña continues to weaken, but 'above-normal' rainfall still likely

Published Jan 25, 2023 01:17 pm

(COURTESY OF PAGASA)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, Jan. 25 said that La Niña continues to weaken, but the chance of “near- to above-normal” rainfall may persist in some parts of the country.

PAGASA said La Niña, or the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and characterized by above-normal rainfall, is responsible for the excessive rainfall in some parts of the country that triggered floods and landslides, especially in areas vulnerable to these hazards.

“La Niña continues to weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral (El Niño Southern Oscillation-neutral) conditions by February to April 2023 season is expected,” Ana Liza Solis, chief of the PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said during a climate outlook forum.

Although the climate is likely to shift to ENSO-neutral conditions, where neither La Niña nor El Niño persists, “near- to above-normal” rainfall may still affect parts of the country.

“La Niña increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions that could lead to potential adverse impacts, such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and landslides, over highly vulnerable areas,” Solis said.

In the PAGASA’s rainfall forecast for February, near- to above-normal rainfall is likely in most of the country except for the western part of Luzon, which may receive “below normal” rainfall.

However, there remains a high probability of near- to above-normal rainfall across the country.

By March near- to above-normal rainfall is likely in Visayas and Mindanao, and most of Luzon, except for some parts of Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and Pampanga, which may receive below normal rainfall.

PAGASA said there remains a high probability of near- to above-normal rainfall, which is more likely above-normal in most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, and some areas in Mindanao.

By April, rainfall may likely to be near- to above-normal in most of the country, except for some areas in Luzon where rainfall will be below normal.

“Probability for near to above normal rainfall conditions is high,” PAGASA said.

Related Tags

La Niña TRANSITION ana liza solis PAGASA weakening la niña Floods
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