‘TOL VIEWS
Senator Francis Tolentino
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, (PAGASA), in its Climate Outlook Report January-June 2023, which was presented during the 155th Climate Forum last December 2022, estimated rainfall in the country for January 2023 to be “generally near to above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country.” The past weeks after Christmas have indeed been characterized by rains and thunderstorms, we do not normally experience during the first month of a new year. PAGASA attributes this unusual weather condition, particularly recently in the Bicol and Eastern Visayas and Mindanao regions to the interplay of weather systems particularly the cool north east monsoon or Amihan and what weather specialists call the shear line.
The shear line is commonly defined as the convergence of cold and warm winds. The cold winds brought along by Amihan is met by the warm winds from the easterlies from the Pacific Ocean causing heavy rains and thunderstorms most often in the Bicol, Easter Visayas and Eastern Mindanao sections. Weather bureaus monitor the effects of shear lines as persistent rains may result to landslides and flashfloods. The threat to agriculture, infrastructure and human life and habitat is very evident during the presence of a shear line. I recall having read a case study about a heavy rainfall event in Venezuela caused by the interaction of a shear line and intertropical convergence zone sometime in 2010. Heavy rains that poured for six consecutive days in the usually dry region of the northern coast of Venezuela totaled 80 percent of the region’s annual rainfall record. The unfortunate weather event left more than 20 casualties, considerable damage to infrastructure and property, and significant economic losses for the rain ravaged areas. This study may only be one of several others that point to the imminent threat caused by a shear line that runs across other weather systems such as low-pressure areas and tropical cyclones, and not to mention too that the event happened in 2010 when climate change impact may perhaps be not of the greater depth and magnitude we presently attribute to the phenomenon.
Yes, it is on the more positive note to consider that the Philippines has proven its ability to rise above crises situations and calamities. However, as we have also proven, preparedness always brings us halfway to safety in times of crises and emergencies. PAGASA’s guidance will be crucial in ensuring the health and safety of communities and in the mitigating strategies of affected localities.