The number of Covid-19 cases per day in Metro Manila could decrease to 600 by end of September as the region’s reproduction number dropped to less than 1 over the past week, said the independent research group OCTA.

In an update shared on Twitter on Saturday, Aug. 27, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said Metro Manila’s reproduction number—the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual—has decreased to 0.99, as of Aug. 23, from 1.02, as of Aug. 16.

“The last time the reproduction number was less than 1 was on May 11, 2022. A reproduction number below 1 indicates infections are trending downward,” David said.

“However, as noted before, new cases in the NCR (National Capital Region) are decreasing at a slow rate,” he added.

Based on the group’s latest monitoring, Metro Manila’s weekly testing positivity rate decreased to 13.6 percent, as of Aug. 25, from 14.7 percent as of Aug. 18.

David said that new cases in Metro Manila also decreased to a seven-day average of 1,002, with an average daily attack rate of 6.96 per 100,000) and one-week growth rate of -9 percent.

Metro Manila’s healthcare utilization and ICU occupancy for Covid-19 cases also dropped to 35 percent and 27 percent, respectively, as of Aug. 25, from 37 percent and 31 percent, as of Aug. 20.

“With the current pace, it could take eight weeks before the positivity rate decreases to less than 5 percent—low positivity rate based on the WHO (World Health Organization),” David said.

“Also, with the current pace, new cases in the NCR are expected to decrease to less than 600 by end of September,” he added.