With a growth rate of -14 percent and less than one reproduction number, independent OCTA Research group confirmed that the country's Covid-19 cases are declining.
Days ahead of the expiration of the State of Calamity in the entire country due to Covid-19, the number of Covid-19 infections in the Philippines continues to decline. As of Tuesday, Aug. 23, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David disclosed that the country’s growth rate was at -14 percent with a reproduction number of .97.
“Medyo significant pa rin ang level ng cases kaya patuloy pa rin ang pag-iingat natin pero karamihan ng lugar sa PIlipinas, katulad ng National Capital Region (NCR) ay bumababa na (The level of cases is still significant so we still need to be cautious but most areas in the Philippines, such as the NCR, are seeing a decline in cases),” said David in a “Laging Handa” public briefing on Tuesday, Aug. 23.
Metro Manila’s growth rate, on the other hand, stood at -12 percent while its reproduction number was at 1.04. The region’s healthcare utilization was at 37 percent. This, according to David, is “manageable” and is still far from the “warning level” at 50 percent.
“Yung intensive care unit (ICU) utilization natin importante ito dahil ito ang mga severe cases, nasa 31 percent lang. Noong dati sa mga nakaraan na surge ay umabot ito sa 60 percent or even as high as 70 to 80 percent. We can manage this. At kung patuloy na bumababa ang cases natin most likely ay hindi na rin tataas ang healthcare utilization natin (Our ICU utilization is important because this pertains to severe cases. It is only 31 percent. In previous surges, it reached 60 percent or even as high as 70 to 80 percent. We can manage this, and if our cases continue to decrease, most likely our healthcare utilization will not increase either) ,” he furthered.
While most parts of the country are experiencing a decline in Covid-19 infections, David noted that there are still regions seeing an uptick in cases. These areas were mostly located in northern Luzon and southern Mindanao, but the expert said that these areas may also see a decline before long.
Fear of surge amid in-person classes
Meanwhile, after years of implementing blended learning due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Philippines, on Monday, Aug. 22 once again opened the schools for the benefit of Filipino learners. With the implementation of face-to-face classes, the fear of another Covid-19-driven surge has resurfaced.
Asked whether the conduct of in-person classes may drive another surge, David said that it is “too early” to determine, but there will always be a possibility for the cases to increase and decline.
“May possibility na tumaas ang cases. We have to be honest with that. We have to set realistic expectations, pero meron din namang possibility na hindi tumaas. (There is always a possibility that the cases will increase. We have to be honest with that. We have to set realistic explanations, but there is also the possibility that it will not rise),” said David.