Metro Manila’s Covid-19 peak still not in sight, as cases continue to rise — OCTA


The peak of the Covid-19 wave driven by Omicron subvariants is not in sight yet as Metro Manila still recorded an increase in new cases in the past few days, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Monday, July 25.

“The peak in new Covid-19 cases in the NCR (National Capital Region) has not been reached as cases continue to increase,” David said.

David noted that from July 18 to 24, Metro Manila logged 1,033 cases per day with an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 7.17 per 100,000 population.

“This is 25 percent higher compared to the seven-day average of 829 from July 11 to 17, equivalent to an ADAR of 5.75,” he said.

“The one-week growth rate in the NCR has remained relatively flat over three weeks. This means that while cases continue to rise, the rate of increase is moderate. The reproduction number in the NCR remained at 1.38,” he added.

Moreover, Metro Manila’s seven-day positivity rate has increased to 14.1 percent on July 23, from 12.7, on July 16.

David said that public complacency and the spread of new Omicron subvariants are potential factors for the “prolonged” Covid-19 wave.

“ NCR is at moderate risk based on the metrics we use, but the bright spot is that the HCUR (healthcare utilization rate) remains below 50 percent,” David said.

Metro Manila’s HCUR has increased from 30.7 percent to 33.1 percent.

“Overall, the NCR was at moderate risk. With a flat growth rate, it is not clear at this time when the peak in cases in the NCR will occur,” David said.

“It could happen next week or August pa. It’s possible na umabot ng 4,000 cases per day next week sa buong bansa pero projections lang yan. Hindi naman ganun kabilis ang pagdami ng cases (It’s possible that it may reach 4,000 cases per day next week in the entire country, but that’s just projections. The increase in cases is not that fast),” he added.

David pointed out that the Covid situation is “not alarming” yet but reminded the public to stay vigilant and continue to practice minimum public health protocols and to have their vaccination or booster against Covid-19.