OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David projected that the Omicron subvariant-driven wave of new Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila will likely begin to decline “around this week or by next week.”

“We might be seeing the peak around 1,000 cases if the peak happens this week. It will be close to what we are seeing right now in Metro Manila, which was yesterday, we had 988 cases,” David said in an interview with CNN Philippines on Monday, July 18.

“We might see a decrease in cases in Metro Manila around this week or by next week. Hopefully, before August,” he added.

David noted that the current wave driven by the Omicron subvariants of Covid-19 “has already been prolonged” and “lasting than originally projected.”

“Our original projections were based on what the experiences of South Africa and other countries were. In their situation, the wave with Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 lasted about two months. But now, we’re already close to a two-month mark and we haven’t yet seen the peak. It’s a little concerning that this is slower and taking longer. But hopefully, at least in Metro Manila, the peak could happen and cases could start decreasing by next week,” he said.

David pointed out that the peak in cases may happen soon, as manifested by the decreasing Covid-19 growth rate and reproduction number in Metro Manila.

He also noted that although Metro Manila’s hospital utilization has been climbing—which is now at 31 percent—it may not reach the alarming level of 50 percent.

“, that may not be the case for many other provinces in the country where cases are just starting to rise,” David said.

The OCTA fellow said that “high” number of cases has been recorded in Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Batangas.

“We are also seeing this in Western Visayas—in Iloilo, Aklan, and Antique. Also in Central Luzon—in Tarlac, Nueva Ecija are seeing very high positivity rates. We’re using the positivity rate as a measure now because testing is not at the same level as it was last year,” he said.