Aragalaya and democracy in Sri Lanka
Published Jul 14, 2022 12:05 am
OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT
Diwa C. Guinigundo
Two weeks ago, we wrote a cautionary tale about Sri Lanka. It was showing an economic meltdown, with grassroots reality of struggling in endless queues for food, fuel and medicine, with rolling blackouts. Power is also in short supply.
It was the government’s populist moves that condemned Sri Lanka to the pit. Income tax and VAT were reduced when public revenues were dwindling. Exemptions were granted to certain imports while tax forbearance was extended. There was no way out for the government to do its job of governance especially during the pandemic but to dig in, and dig in deeper in debt.
Very few anticipated that the Sri Lankans, after a period of angry demands for their president to step down, could have quickly summoned that singular courage to mount mass protests and then storm the presidential palace in Colombo as they did last Saturday, and forced him to flee. Sri Lankans have a term for their struggle: “aragalaya.” People power. It is their version of our very own EDSA revolt.
The economy was inexorably going down the drain, and there was no way for the president to argue his way to keep his power. It is difficult to explain his millions of rupees in crispy brand-new banknotes that he left behind as he fled the palace. Corruption was just too commonplace to be denied.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa could only flee from the angry crowd after his army troops fired into the air. Earlier, the demonstrators contended with the president’s security officers. But they managed to dismantle the barricades and cleared the high gates through a sequestered police truck.
Sri Lanka’s “aragalaya” shows Sri Lanka’s adherence to democracy. Yes, some of the crowd jumped into the presidential pool to cool off. Some strolled on the presidential lawn. Aside from helping themselves to the presidential pantry with snacks and soda, the wires reported no theft. A university student was quoted to have appealed to the crowd not to loot the palace. Those expensive paintings that lined up the palace walls were not done by Rajapaksa; the crowd should not vandalize them. It was enough that his family dynasty crumbled before people power.
“We called Gota a thief and got him out, please do not remove anything from the palace. We should not be thieves.”
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe also announced his resignation effective yesterday to give way for an all-party government. Obviously, he also failed to arrest economic mismanagement, including the Covid-19 pandemic.
The people’s entry into the palace revealed an infuriating contrast. The polished interiors including the four-poster bed, and the huge swimming pool mocked the widespread misery of the 22 million Sri Lankans. They must have supreme patience and temperance in not looting the palace.
And there was calm as early as the following day.
The protesters were not mob. They decided to remain in the palace, the Presidential Secretariat and the official residence of the prime minister, known as the Temple Trees, until both Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe give up their post. They were strategic.
Effectively, there is power vacuum in Sri Lanka. Both the top leaders are yet to relinquish their positions formally. There were reports that both of them continue to work in remote mode, something that cannot be sustained.
The chronology done by Rathindra Kuruwita of The Explainer from the time the economic crisis turned for the worse and motivated a series of people’s protests starting March 31, to the assault of the palace on July 9 documented the rapid turn of events. Sri Lanka could only hold its breath this week. With corruption and incompetence to be out soon, consensus building is the next imperative for a unified government. On it is anchored Sri Lanka’s economic prospects.
Ahead can only be described as enormously challenging
For politics remains highly uncertain. With the prospective resignation of Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe, the speaker of the Parliament will preside over the transition limited by the Constitution to one month. The first hurdle is to elect the new president with enough support from the Parliament’s 113 members. But President Rajapaksa holds the wild card because his party continues to control the majority of the seats.
Forming a stable and legitimate government is therefore crucial to both political and economic future of Sri Lanka. It would have a better chance of negotiating a $3 billion Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. It holds less than $2 billion in foreign reserves by end-March while its foreign loans are maturing shortly. Two months ago, AP Morning Wire estimated Sri Lanka’s usable foreign exchange reserves at no more than $50 million, with $7 billion in debt liabilities this year out of its over $25 billion gross foreign debt. Some accounts put it at over $50 billion.
Without an IMF program, it is impossible for Sri Lanka to even reach the negotiating table with other foreign creditors. Creditor and investor confidence must be at their lowest given that their inflation rate is expected at more than 70 percent for the rest of the year.
What else could one expect from the credit rating agencies which are normally pro-cyclical in their actions but to further downgrade Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka demonstrates to the world the destiny that awaits many developing countries with fragile economies and increasing democracy deficit. Civil society easily sees the vast contrast between ground experience with basic commodity shortages, and consequent poverty, and extravagant indulgence of those in authority. In fact, the mass protests in Colombo could not be more tempered. Yet they succeeded so far to force things to more democratic direction.
Diwa C. Guinigundo
Two weeks ago, we wrote a cautionary tale about Sri Lanka. It was showing an economic meltdown, with grassroots reality of struggling in endless queues for food, fuel and medicine, with rolling blackouts. Power is also in short supply.
It was the government’s populist moves that condemned Sri Lanka to the pit. Income tax and VAT were reduced when public revenues were dwindling. Exemptions were granted to certain imports while tax forbearance was extended. There was no way out for the government to do its job of governance especially during the pandemic but to dig in, and dig in deeper in debt.
Very few anticipated that the Sri Lankans, after a period of angry demands for their president to step down, could have quickly summoned that singular courage to mount mass protests and then storm the presidential palace in Colombo as they did last Saturday, and forced him to flee. Sri Lankans have a term for their struggle: “aragalaya.” People power. It is their version of our very own EDSA revolt.
The economy was inexorably going down the drain, and there was no way for the president to argue his way to keep his power. It is difficult to explain his millions of rupees in crispy brand-new banknotes that he left behind as he fled the palace. Corruption was just too commonplace to be denied.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa could only flee from the angry crowd after his army troops fired into the air. Earlier, the demonstrators contended with the president’s security officers. But they managed to dismantle the barricades and cleared the high gates through a sequestered police truck.
Sri Lanka’s “aragalaya” shows Sri Lanka’s adherence to democracy. Yes, some of the crowd jumped into the presidential pool to cool off. Some strolled on the presidential lawn. Aside from helping themselves to the presidential pantry with snacks and soda, the wires reported no theft. A university student was quoted to have appealed to the crowd not to loot the palace. Those expensive paintings that lined up the palace walls were not done by Rajapaksa; the crowd should not vandalize them. It was enough that his family dynasty crumbled before people power.
“We called Gota a thief and got him out, please do not remove anything from the palace. We should not be thieves.”
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe also announced his resignation effective yesterday to give way for an all-party government. Obviously, he also failed to arrest economic mismanagement, including the Covid-19 pandemic.
The people’s entry into the palace revealed an infuriating contrast. The polished interiors including the four-poster bed, and the huge swimming pool mocked the widespread misery of the 22 million Sri Lankans. They must have supreme patience and temperance in not looting the palace.
And there was calm as early as the following day.
The protesters were not mob. They decided to remain in the palace, the Presidential Secretariat and the official residence of the prime minister, known as the Temple Trees, until both Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe give up their post. They were strategic.
Effectively, there is power vacuum in Sri Lanka. Both the top leaders are yet to relinquish their positions formally. There were reports that both of them continue to work in remote mode, something that cannot be sustained.
The chronology done by Rathindra Kuruwita of The Explainer from the time the economic crisis turned for the worse and motivated a series of people’s protests starting March 31, to the assault of the palace on July 9 documented the rapid turn of events. Sri Lanka could only hold its breath this week. With corruption and incompetence to be out soon, consensus building is the next imperative for a unified government. On it is anchored Sri Lanka’s economic prospects.
Ahead can only be described as enormously challenging
For politics remains highly uncertain. With the prospective resignation of Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe, the speaker of the Parliament will preside over the transition limited by the Constitution to one month. The first hurdle is to elect the new president with enough support from the Parliament’s 113 members. But President Rajapaksa holds the wild card because his party continues to control the majority of the seats.
Forming a stable and legitimate government is therefore crucial to both political and economic future of Sri Lanka. It would have a better chance of negotiating a $3 billion Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. It holds less than $2 billion in foreign reserves by end-March while its foreign loans are maturing shortly. Two months ago, AP Morning Wire estimated Sri Lanka’s usable foreign exchange reserves at no more than $50 million, with $7 billion in debt liabilities this year out of its over $25 billion gross foreign debt. Some accounts put it at over $50 billion.
Without an IMF program, it is impossible for Sri Lanka to even reach the negotiating table with other foreign creditors. Creditor and investor confidence must be at their lowest given that their inflation rate is expected at more than 70 percent for the rest of the year.
What else could one expect from the credit rating agencies which are normally pro-cyclical in their actions but to further downgrade Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka demonstrates to the world the destiny that awaits many developing countries with fragile economies and increasing democracy deficit. Civil society easily sees the vast contrast between ground experience with basic commodity shortages, and consequent poverty, and extravagant indulgence of those in authority. In fact, the mass protests in Colombo could not be more tempered. Yet they succeeded so far to force things to more democratic direction.