Metro Manila’s risk classification for Covid-19 has moved from low to moderate risk, said an OCTA Research fellow on Thursday, June 16.

In an interview with CNN Philippines on Thursday morning, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that based on their metrics, Metro Manila is now “moderate risk” for Covid-19.

“Based on our metrics, this is our metrics and not necessarily the same as the one used by the Department of Health (DOH), Metro Manila has moved from low to moderate risk. That being said, again, moderate risk does not translate to an escalation of the alert level. We are still looking at the healthcare utilization and it is still very low at this time,” said David.

David, during the same interview, disclosed that Metro Manila’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) is projected to breach 1 and it is currently at 0.99. The reproduction number, on the other hand, remains “very high” at 1.56, while the weekly positivity rate has increased to 3.3 percent.

Metro Manila’s health care utilization, despite the evident increase in other Covid-19 indicators, remained “very low” at 23 percent, said David.

Meanwhile, amid the reported rise in Covid-19 cases, as well as the lingering threat of Covid-19 sub variants, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) has decided to keep Metro Manila under the alert level 1 status until June 30, 2022.

This, according to David, is supported by the independent research group OCTA, as they are not expecting a “big surge,” similar to what occurred in January or in 2021.

“We are projecting perhaps a few hundred cases at the peak of the surge in Metro Manila which will not really affect the healthcare too much. That being said, if the numbers increase beyond the projections, there should be room to reevaluate the alert level status,” David furthered.