Metro Manila may register 400 to 500 Covid-19 cases per day by the end of June because of the steady increase in new infections in the region, the OCTA Research Group said on Tuesday, June 14.

“Ang projection namin by end of June, baka umabot na sa 400 to 500 . Medyo bumibilis yung pagtaas ng kaso kasi dati nasa 65 cases lang tayo per day (Our projection by the end of June is that the number of cases may reach 400 to 500 cases per day. The increase in cases is accelerating because we used to only have 65 cases per day),” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in a televised public briefing.

Metro Manila recorded 188 fresh cases on Monday, June 13.

David pointed out that Metro Manila may escalate to “moderate” from “low” Covid-19 risk by next week.

“More concerning na nga siya kasi noong mga nakaraan na linggo tumataas na nga ang bilang ng kaso pero bahagya lang ang itinataas. The past week, 53 percent na yung itinaas from 10 percent to 53 percent. Yung seven-day average ng bilang ng kaso tumaas from 86 to 131 cases per day (It is more concerning because in recent weeks the number of cases has been increasing, but only slightly. Cases have increased by 53 percent from 10 percent over the past week. The seven-day average number of cases increased from 86 to 131 cases per day),” he said.

Moreover, David said that Metro Manila’s Covid-19 reproduction number has increased from 1.25 to 1.59, while the positivity rate went up from 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, while positivity rate refers to the number of individuals who yielded positive results from among those who have been tested for Covid-19.

However, he noted that the increase in healthcare utilization for Covid-19 cases remains low.

“Sa ngayon, ang nakikita natin na patuloy yung pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso at bumibilis pa siya sa Metro Manila (So far, what we can see is that the number of cases continues to increase and is still accelerating in Metro Manila),” David said.

He said there is also a possibility of having 2,000 infections per day across the country.

“Initial projections pa lang ito. We will recalibrate dahil posible bumilis pa ang pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso. Hopefully hindi na siya umabot ng 1,000 cases per day sa Metro Manila pero may possibility pa rin yan (These are just initial projections. We will recalibrate this because it is possible that the number of cases will increase even faster. Hopefully, it won’t reach 1,000 cases per day in Metro Manila but that is still a possibility),” David added.

He noted that the decision to raise the alert level in Metro Manila “remains a possibility within the next few weeks,” but that the decision must come from the Department of Health and the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

“After two years of the pandemic, malaking bagay na rin dapat yung personal responsibility. Yung mga kababayan natin, more or less, dapat alam na natin kung ano yung risks ng Covid and kung tumataas yung cases nasa mga kababayan natin yung choice na kung lalabas sila or hindi. (After two years of the pandemic, personal responsibility should be a significant matter. Our countrymen, more or less, should know what the risks of Covid are and if the cases increase, our countrymen have the choice of whether or not they will go out),” David advised.