Latest analysis shows higher chance of LPA becoming tropical cyclone – PAGASA

There is now a higher chance that the low pressure area (LPA) embedded along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) will become a tropical cyclone, the state weather bureau said on Thursday, April 7.

(Screengrab / PAGASA YouTube page)

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather specialist Raymond Ordinario said that the LPA inside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) was last spotted 180 kilometers (km) east-northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

“Base sa ating latest analysis ay may tiyansa na o tumataas na ang tiyansa na maging bagyo ang nasabing LPA (Based on our latest analysis, there is now a higher chance that the said LPA will develop into a tropical cyclone),” said Ordinario in a public weather forecast.

Residents of Visayas, Mindanao, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Quezon were warned to remain vigilant against possible flash floods or landslides during moderate to at times heavy rains that the LPA or ITCZ may bring.

The northeasterly surface windflow, on the other hand, may bring cloudy skies with isolated light rains in Cagayan Valley, Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Aurora, Ilocos Region, Abra, and Benguet in the next 24 hours.

The state weather bureau likewise warned Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon against partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, PAGASA is also monitoring another weather disturbance outside PAR.

The tropical depression outside PAR was last spotted 2,415 km east of Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph), gustiness of up to 70 kph, and it is moving west-northwestward at 15 kph.

“Dahil sa bagong analysis natin na magiging presence ng isang bagyo sa loob ng ating PAR ay lumiliit ngayon ang tiyansa na pumasok ang nasabing tropical depression. Ganon pa man ay mayroon pa rin tayong bagyo na babantayan sa susunod na linggo (Due to our new analysis which revealed that there is now a higher chance of tropical cyclone-development inside PAR, the chances of the tropical depression entering has now decreased. Nonetheless, we will still be monitoring for a tropical cyclone next week),” said Ordinario.