Independent research group OCTA on Monday, April 25, warned the public against a potential resurgence of Covid-19 infections driven by the emergence of Omicron subvariants, BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1.

OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David noted that the increase in new Covid-19 cases in South Africa, Delhi in India, and the United States “makes it likely that the Philippines will see an increase in cases soon.”

The situation in these areas, he said, mirrors what could also happen in the Philippines.

“It is likely . How high the surge would be? We dont know yet. I think it will not be like the surge in January. It will be a much lower increase in cases relatively. We are still monitoring what is happening in South Africa and in India because this is an advanced information for us. What happens there could happen to us,” David said in an online forum on Monday.

Although the Covid situation in the country is still under control, David believes that the rise in cases may happen “some time soon” or “around May or June.”

“Once we start to see an uptick, it will likely that it will continue until we reach a certain peak,” he pointed out.

“For now, it appears that we are entering into a time where Covid-19 cases will go up and down depending upon the arrival of new variants, but that these variants do not increase death or hospitalizations,” OCTA fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said during the forum.

“Any of these variants could trigger another surge in our country. Because these three will out compete the BA.2,” Austriaco said.

“These variants are probably mild, but still we do not want to get unnecessarily sick. This is why boosters are important because Filipinos who have lost their immunity as the immunity is waning will become more vulnerable,” he added.

He noted that face masks alone are not enough to completely prevent a surge.

“The Philippines is going to resemble many of these countries . That’s why the numbers are going to increase. I do not think it’s going to be a devastating surge like the surge we saw in January, primarily because we have significant hybrid immunity,” Austriaco said.

He explained that hybrid immunity is a natural immunity from a previous Covid-19 infection and acquired immunity from a Covid-19 vaccine.

“But some of these hybrid immunity is going to be waning,” Austriaco adding that “now is the time to get boostered to protect ourselves and our loved ones against three emerging variants—BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5.”

“Even though they are mild for those with immunity, they are not as mild and can be deadly for those who lost their immunity or who never had immunity in the first place,” he said.