The Department of Health (DOH) said that the Philippines remains under "minimal risk" case classification for Covid-19, but reminded Filipinos not to be complacent amid the possibility of a spike in cases in May if the decline in the compliance to health protocols continues.

DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that “recent data shows that Covid-19 is continuously dropping.” The average daily number of cases in the Philippines is at 224 which is “only slightly lower than the 266 cases we last recorded on the week” of Dec. 19 to 25, 2021 or “prior to the Omicron wave,” she added.

“Nationally and all the regions remain at minimal risk case classification with a negative two-week growth rate and an average daily attack rate of less than 1 per 100,000 population,” said Vergeire during a forum on Wednesday, April 20.

“The national healthcare utilization also remains to be at low-risk for total beds and ICU (intensive care unit) beds,” she added.

Vergeire, however, said there were five regions that recorded a slight increase in their respective Covid-19 “one-week growth rate.” Based on her presentation, these regions were Ilocos, Bicol, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Metro Manila status

The Covid-19 case classification of the National Capital Region (NCR) was also still at minimal risk. The DOH observed a “slight increase” in cases but once again declined, said Vergeire.

“Looking at the cases in the National Capital Region, although NCR showed a slight increase in cases in the previous week, cases in the recent week are lower by 14 percent from the previous week—now we average 86 cases per day here in NCR,” she said.

Based on her presentation, for the period of April 12 to 18, the average reported cases per day was at 86. The week prior or from April 5 to 11, the average daily reported cases was 100. From March 29 to April 4, the average daily cases was at 141 or eight percent higher than the 130 cases per day recorded from March 22 to 28.

Vergeire also noted a “positive” Covid-19 one-week growth rate in seven areas in Metro Manila.

“All areas in NCR are at minimal risk case classification with seven areas: Paranaque, Taguig, Las Pinas, Navotas, Muntinlupa, Marikina, and Pateros showing positive one-week growth rate,” she said.

Not significant

When asked if the positive Covid-19 one week growth rate observed in five regions and seven areas in Metro Manila is considered a significant increase, Vergeire said it is not.

“Not significant in terms of number and most importantly in terms of healthcare utilization,” said Vergeire in a text message.

“though the public is advised to continue to practice MPHS (minimum public health standards] as the risk of having increased cases in the coming weeks is there if we do not practice MPHS and we do not improve our coverage for vaccination,” she added.

Case surge projection

The DOH official said that their projection of 500,000 active Covid-19 cases next month is “not cast in stone.”

“Will this happen? That’s a question for everybody. There is no certainty actually. But what we are trying to inform the public would be that the possibility is there. The probability and the risk is very high because of all of this crowding happening: campaign period Holy Week,” said Vergeire.

“Lagi natin tatandaan (We should always remember), projections are not cast in stone. Ang projections ginagawa ng Department of Health para maguide yung planning and preparation ng gobyerno at mga tao para dito. Bottomline at saka napaka importante na kailangan malaman ng mga tao ang posibilidad na pwedeng tumaas ang kaso ay nandoon kaya kailangan mag-iingat tayo (The projections are being made by the Department of Health to guide the planning and preparations being done by the government and the public. Bottomline, it is very important that the people need to know that there is really a possibility that the cases will increase. That is why we need to be careful),” she added.