Nothing is certain, according to an official of the Department of Health (DOH), as the possibility of having another spike in Covid-19 cases is always present.
In a press briefing on Tuesday, March 29, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that even the health experts cannot really say if there will or there will no longer be a surge of Covid-19 cases in the coming months.
Vergeire made the remark in response to a question regarding the statement made by Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Secretary Jose ‘Joey’ Concepcion III who was concerned with the low uptake of booster shots as it may make the country susceptible to yet another surge.
"The possibility is always there. Katulad ng lagi naming sinasabi (Like we always say), the risks are here. There is no certainty as to the variants that will come in the country or will be created," she stated.
She agreed that the vaccines are a factor in the uptick of cases since it prevents infections. Concepcion emphasized the importance of booster shots with the vaccines' waning immunity.
Vergeire, however, said that while the experts have been advising to get additional protection she clarified that this does not mean that the primary series of Covid-19 vaccines is no longer working. But due to the arrival of the Omicron variant, the immunity it provides has already diminished.
April case projections
Based on the projections made by Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (FASSTER), Vergeire shared that daily Covid-19 cases by the end of April will be from 70 to 268. This was based on the following assumptions:
- Omicron is 2.05 times more transmissible than Delta
- Mobility nationwide is at pre-pandemic level
- Omicron accounts to almost 100 percent of cases in the country
- Waning immunity of Covid-19 vaccines
- By the end of April, nationally, 75 percent has fully-vaccinated
- By the end of April, nationally, 15 percent eligible population are boosted
Vergeire also stated that the number of cases is also dependent on the adherence to minimum public health standards (MPHS). On the other hand, if compliance will drop by 20 percent, an increase in daily Covid-19 cases from 70 to 670 may be observed.
She also reminded that the projections are based on assumptions and that they are not "cast in stone".
"Anything can still happen. There are a lot of risk factors present right now na maaring makatulong sa pagtaas ng kaso (that may contribute to the increase in Covid-19 cases) in the coming weeks or months," she said.
She urged the public to continuously follow the health protocols to ensure safety and get vaccinated and boosted as well in order to negate the risk factors so that they may continue to enjoy the situation currently being experienced in the country.