Is the 'worst' really over?
Published Feb 6, 2022 12:04 am
THE VIEW FROM RIZAL
Dr. Jun Ynares
“Is what they are saying true? Is the worst really over?”
That was the tone of the questions we got from readers and friends last week. This kind of question appears to have been fueled by certain developments last week which seemed to have brought about a sense of “guarded optimism” among our countrymen.
The first was the announcement by the Inter-agency Task Force on the management of emerging infectious diseases (IATF) that several parts of the country were to be placed under Alert Level 2.
The second were the latest COVID-19 statistics which showed a significant slowing down of the rate of infection. From an average high of 40,000 just a couple of weeks ago, last week’s average daily infection was below the 10,000-per-day-mark.
The third was an actual statement from one of the research fellows of a non-government research agency. The research fellow said the statistics appear to indicate that “the worst may be over.”
We surmise that what the research fellow meant was that the onslaught of the Omicron variant may have already reached peak numbers. From here, the numbers could only go down. It may also mean that, barring the entry of a new variant of the virus, the Omicron may have already shown the world the worst that it can bring about. We have seen the extent of the damage and we feel we have survived the worst.
We have also heard experts say that the pandemic may now be entering the “endemic” stage, a perspective that appears to be the reason why some European countries have reportedly removed most if not all restrictions on the movements of people, goods and services. These countries are said to have accepted the fact that the COVID-19 virus “will be here with us forever” and that we will all “just have to learn to live with it.”
We hope that the experts are correct regarding the view that “the worst is over.”
At this point, we are waiting for more factual bases for that view.
History seems to favor that view.
A number of historical researchers point out that we may be going through the same experience as the generation that suffered the scourge of the Spanish Flu in 1918.
A Washington Post article recalled that some 50 million people worldwide perished in that 1918 pandemic. Others estimated the fatality to have reached the 100-million mark.
That pandemic lasted until the first quarter of 1920. How that pandemic ended is what researchers are now looking at to provide the world with clues on how we might see the conclusion of the COVID-19 scourge.
We seem to be luckier than the generation that faced the Spanish Flu. We were able to develop and administer vaccines against the COVID-19 virus in just over a year from the discovery of deadly disease. They had none in 1918. The development of anti-flu vaccines seemed to have made breakthroughs only in the early 1930s. By then, the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.
According to the Washington Post article, our great-great grandparents used health protocols similar to what we are applying today to fight the spread of the Spanish flu virus.
They were told to stay away from crowded places, to prevent sneezing and coughing in public. In some places, there was a ban on spitting. People were told “not to share breath.” They masked up, avoided poorly ventilated places, and were careful not to use cups and towels used by others.
In time, the Spanish Flu virus “morphed” into a weaker form. By the first quarter of 1920, less people contracted the virus or died from the pneumonia that it brought about.
According to the Washington Post article citing medical historians: “Over time, people who contracted the virus developed an immunity from the novel strand of influenza virus, and life returned to normal by the early 1920s. Reports at the time suggest the virus became less lethal as the pandemic carried on in waves.”
Is the COVID 19 virus now at its “less lethal stage”?
We hope so. Some researchers believe there are indications that it is so.
We are warned that viruses never, ever go away. The Spanish Flu virus is still with us – only in its “less lethal” form. It is now among the many viruses that cause the seasonal flu outbreaks in various parts of the world.
We suggest we remain cautious. Let us keep our optimism in “guarded” mode. We will have to wait for official word from local and international health organizations before we go out in the streets to celebrate the end of a pandemic.
We are certain it will come to an end. Believing that the end has come must be based on facts, not on wishful thinking.
Meanwhile, keep the masks on and observe maximum prudence and caution.
*For feedback, please email it to [email protected] or send it to Block 6 Lot 10 Sta. Barbara 1 cor. Bradley St., Mission Hills Subd., Brgy. San Roque, Antipolo City, Rizal.
Dr. Jun Ynares
“Is what they are saying true? Is the worst really over?”
That was the tone of the questions we got from readers and friends last week. This kind of question appears to have been fueled by certain developments last week which seemed to have brought about a sense of “guarded optimism” among our countrymen.
The first was the announcement by the Inter-agency Task Force on the management of emerging infectious diseases (IATF) that several parts of the country were to be placed under Alert Level 2.
The second were the latest COVID-19 statistics which showed a significant slowing down of the rate of infection. From an average high of 40,000 just a couple of weeks ago, last week’s average daily infection was below the 10,000-per-day-mark.
The third was an actual statement from one of the research fellows of a non-government research agency. The research fellow said the statistics appear to indicate that “the worst may be over.”
We surmise that what the research fellow meant was that the onslaught of the Omicron variant may have already reached peak numbers. From here, the numbers could only go down. It may also mean that, barring the entry of a new variant of the virus, the Omicron may have already shown the world the worst that it can bring about. We have seen the extent of the damage and we feel we have survived the worst.
We have also heard experts say that the pandemic may now be entering the “endemic” stage, a perspective that appears to be the reason why some European countries have reportedly removed most if not all restrictions on the movements of people, goods and services. These countries are said to have accepted the fact that the COVID-19 virus “will be here with us forever” and that we will all “just have to learn to live with it.”
We hope that the experts are correct regarding the view that “the worst is over.”
At this point, we are waiting for more factual bases for that view.
History seems to favor that view.
A number of historical researchers point out that we may be going through the same experience as the generation that suffered the scourge of the Spanish Flu in 1918.
A Washington Post article recalled that some 50 million people worldwide perished in that 1918 pandemic. Others estimated the fatality to have reached the 100-million mark.
That pandemic lasted until the first quarter of 1920. How that pandemic ended is what researchers are now looking at to provide the world with clues on how we might see the conclusion of the COVID-19 scourge.
We seem to be luckier than the generation that faced the Spanish Flu. We were able to develop and administer vaccines against the COVID-19 virus in just over a year from the discovery of deadly disease. They had none in 1918. The development of anti-flu vaccines seemed to have made breakthroughs only in the early 1930s. By then, the Spanish Flu pandemic was over.
According to the Washington Post article, our great-great grandparents used health protocols similar to what we are applying today to fight the spread of the Spanish flu virus.
They were told to stay away from crowded places, to prevent sneezing and coughing in public. In some places, there was a ban on spitting. People were told “not to share breath.” They masked up, avoided poorly ventilated places, and were careful not to use cups and towels used by others.
In time, the Spanish Flu virus “morphed” into a weaker form. By the first quarter of 1920, less people contracted the virus or died from the pneumonia that it brought about.
According to the Washington Post article citing medical historians: “Over time, people who contracted the virus developed an immunity from the novel strand of influenza virus, and life returned to normal by the early 1920s. Reports at the time suggest the virus became less lethal as the pandemic carried on in waves.”
Is the COVID 19 virus now at its “less lethal stage”?
We hope so. Some researchers believe there are indications that it is so.
We are warned that viruses never, ever go away. The Spanish Flu virus is still with us – only in its “less lethal” form. It is now among the many viruses that cause the seasonal flu outbreaks in various parts of the world.
We suggest we remain cautious. Let us keep our optimism in “guarded” mode. We will have to wait for official word from local and international health organizations before we go out in the streets to celebrate the end of a pandemic.
We are certain it will come to an end. Believing that the end has come must be based on facts, not on wishful thinking.
Meanwhile, keep the masks on and observe maximum prudence and caution.
*For feedback, please email it to [email protected] or send it to Block 6 Lot 10 Sta. Barbara 1 cor. Bradley St., Mission Hills Subd., Brgy. San Roque, Antipolo City, Rizal.