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Manila Bulletin devider Entertainment devider Movies and TV devider FEARLESS FORECAST: Predicting Oscar!

FEARLESS FORECAST: Predicting Oscar!

Published Feb 26, 2022 04:37 pm

Oscar statue (AFP Photo)

With the announcement of the 2022 Academy Awards nominations, the annual Oscar season has officially begun. It culminates come March 27th (Monday morning, March 28 Manila time), when the Oscars are held, and all the prognosticating, second-guessing of the Guilds, and placing of bets on heavy favorites, come to a close. That’s when the statuettes are handed out, and the whole process resets

But that’s half the fun, our divining who will win come Oscars night. So indulge us, as we list down the major categories, and pull out our list Who Will Win, & Who Should Win. And once again, let’s see how many I get right.

The overall impression I got as the nominations were announced was that the Academy loved their closet cowboy story, and the return of Jane Campion, a bit too much. And not enough love for musicians turned actors - poor, passed over Lady Gaga and Jared Leto. The strongest film commercially that got multiple nominations was Dune; while the ones that practically ‘saved’ Hollywood and cinema attendance - Spider-Man: Far From Home and Shang-Chi & the Legend of the Ten Rings, each got one nomination each, and in the minor category of Best Visual Effects.

So here we go:

Best Picture - 10 nominees this year, and I can guarantee that Drive My Car will not be the Parasite of 2022. It’s too measured; a slow-paced European-style film. The small films I actually loved in the list are CODA and Belfast. If the academy votes nostalgically, West Side Story has a chance, but I think the Jane Campion sidebar story is hard to resist.

'The Power of the Dog'

Who Will Win - The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win - West Side Story

Best Actress - Jessica Chastain for Eyes of Tammy Faye is the surprise here. She was great, but the film itself was so flawed. I like Olivia Colman, but I don’t think she’s the true star of The Lost Daughter, with only the public market scene as really memorable. Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana was most impressive in the bedroom scene with her two sons. And while Penelope Cruz was consistent, who have watched this Almodovar film? Hollywood loves to navel-gaze, so a turn as Lucille Ball, may swing this Nicole’s way.

'Being the Ricardos'

Who Will Win - Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos

Who Should Win - Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Jodi Smit-McPhee (left) and Benedict Cumberbatch of 'The Power of the Dog'

Best Actor - You can count Javier Bardem out of the running, as with Andrew Garfield. And I’m wondering if Will Smith and Denzel Washington will end up tied in second place. This is Benedict Cumberbatch’s to lose.

Who Will Win - Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win - Will Smith for King Richard

Jessie Buckley, who plays the young Leda, in 'The Lost Daughter'

Best Supporting Actress - My sentimental pick would be Dame Judi Dench for Belfast; but for me, the absolute best thing in The Lost Daughter was Jessie Buckley as the young version of the character portrayed by Olivia Colman. Years ago, I tipped Colman for The Favorite as Best Actress, and called it her breakthrough role - that’s what I hope happens to Buckley here, as she’s done so many riveting portrayals already, but isn’t a household name.

Who Will Win - Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter

Who Should Win - Jessie Buckley for The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor - If having both Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee for the Power of the Dog means they cancel each other out, then I would love Troy Kotsur of CODA to snag this award, and be only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar.

Who Will Win - Jodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win - Troy Kotsur for CODA

Best Director - The Jane Campion story is hard to resist, as she last won an Oscar for The Piano in the 1994 Oscars; but while nominated as Best Director, went up to the podium for Best Original Screenplay. Branagh, Hamaguchi, Spielberg, and Anderson are all equally deserving, but I’ll call this for Women’s Month.

Who Will Win - Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

Who Should Win - Sir Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

Best Original Screenplay - Licorice Pizza, Belfast, King Richard, Don’t Look Up, and The Worst Person In the World. Hard to make a choice here, but I’ll call it for King Richard.

Who Will Win - King Richard by Zach Baylin

Who Should Win - Licorice Pizza by Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Adapted Screenplay - The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, CODA, Dune, and Drive My Car. Taking the source material and turning it into riveting cinema isn’t as easy as it sounds.

Who Will Win - The Lost Daughter by Maggie Gyllenhaal

Who Should Win - Drive My Car by Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe

'Encanto'

Best Animated Feature - I love how Flee is here, but tackling the refugee crisis and LGBTQ issues may be too heavy in this category. Personally, I enjoyed The Mitchells vs the Machines the most, but can’t see Encanto losing. Great to see Raya and the Last Dragon make the list, but along with Luca, these are the lightweights here.

Who Will Win - Encanto

Who Should Win - The Mitchells vs the Machines

Best Documentary Feature - Flee makes its presence again, but as this is the Oscars, and it’s American, watch Black History & Music take the prize with Summer of Soul.

Who Will Win - Summer of Soul

Who Should Win - Flee

'Drive My Car'

Best International Feature - Drive My Car from Japan, The Worst Person In the World from Norway, Flee (again!) from Denmark, The Hand of God from Italy, and Lunana from Bhutan. A rich compelling list this year, and I’ve watched four.

Who Will Win - Drive My Car

Who Should Win - Drive My Car

Best Original Song - From Belfast, to Encanto, No Time to Die, Four Good Days, and King Richard. I’ll call this for Encanto, although I’m not sure if they chose the right Encanto song.

Who Will Win - Dos Oruguitas from Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda

Who Should Win - Be Alive from King Richard, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Dixson

Best Original Score - We have The Power of the Dog, Dune, Don’t Look Up, Encanto, and Parallel Mothers.

Who Will Win - Dune, Hans Zimmer

Who Should Win - Encanto, Germaine Franco

Best Cinematography - Dune, Power of the Dog, Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, and West Side Story.

Who Will Win - The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel

Who Should Win - The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel

Best Visual Effects - Nominees are Dune, Free Guy, Spider-Man: No Way Home, No Time to Die, and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.

Who Will Win - Spider-Man: Far From Home

Who Should Win - Dune

Best Film Editing - Dune, Power of the Dog, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, and Tick, Tick... Boom!

Who Will Win - Dune

Who Should Win - Don’t Look Up

Best Costume Design - Cruella, Dune, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, and Cyreno.

Who Will Win - Dune

Who Should Win - Cyrano

Best Sound - Dune, West Side Story, No Time to Die, Belfast, and The Power of the Dog.

Who Will Win - West Side Story

Who Should Win - West Side Story

Best Production Design - Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Tragedy of Macbeth, Power of the Dog.

Who Will Win - Dune

Who Should Win - Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Make-Up & Hairstyling - Eyes of Tammy Faye, Dune, Cruella, Coming 2 America, and House of Gucci.

Who Will Win - House of Gucci

Who Should Win - Eyes of Tammy Faye

For Best Live Action Short, Best Animated Short, and Best Documentary Short; I’ve not seen any of them, so don’t think I’m qualified to predict winners.

...

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