Metro Manila could be placed under a more relaxed Alert Level 1 quarantine classification by next week, according to the OCTA Research Group.

"Sa amin ang tinitingnan lang naman namin iyong metrics at dahil less than 5 percent na ang positivity rate, ang healthcare utilization ay nasa 25 percent lang, pati ang ICU utilization mababa (For us, we only look at your metrics and since the positivity rate is less than 5 percent, healthcare utilization is only 25 percent, as well as ICU utilization is low)," OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said during the Laging Handa public briefing on Tuesday, Feb. 22.

"So parang sa palagay namin, sa perspective ng numbers ay mukhang nandoon na tayo na baka by next week, baka by March 1, puwede na nga ibaba sa Alert Level 1 (So we think from the perspective of numbers, it looks like we are already there. Maybe by next week, maybe by March 1, Metro Manila can already be placed under Alert Level 1)," he added.

David noted that the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) positivity rate in Metro Manila has decreased to 4.9 percent as of Feb. 21.

According to the benchmark set by the WHO, a positivity rate of below 5 percent should be maintained for 14 days before the transmission of COVID-19 can be considered "controlled."

"Sa ngayon ang average number of cases natin sa Metro Manila ay 400 per day na lang (Currently, our average number of cases in Metro Manila is only 400 per day). This is comparable to December 2020," David said.

"Noong December 2021 mas mababa siya, nasa mga 200 cases na lang per day. So iyon ang inaasahan natin ma-achieve pa natin ito pang mas mababa na mga 200 or even 100 cases per day na lang para masasabi natin controlled ang situation (In December 2021 it was lower, at only about 200 cases per day. So that's what we hope we can achieve even less with 200 or even 100 cases per day just so we can say the situation is under control)," he added.

David pointed out that the COVID situation was already controlled in December 2021 until the surge of cases driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant.

"So ang kalaban talaga natin, malaking kalaban natin ay kung may panibagong variant. Sa ngayon, minu-monitor naman natin iyong mga variants na lumalabas, itong mga sub-variants ng Omicron at wala naman tayong nakikitang malaking threat pero again kailangan patuloy pa rin ang pag-iingat natin (So our real opponent, our big opponent is if there is another variant. Right now, we are monitoring those variants that are coming out, these are sub-variants of Omicron and we don't see a big threat but again we still need to be careful)," he said.